Match report →
Valencia – Athletic Club0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Valencia
1.34
Total xG
2.53
Athletic Club
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Valencia | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.99 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.51 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.51 | +0.51 |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.27 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.21 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 10, 9 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 19, 9 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Head-to-head: Valencia won 2 of the last 5 meetings against Athletic Club, including the most recent match 1-0
- Attack: Athletic Club scored 1.0 goals per game in 2 league away games, the model expects 1.34 to 1.18 goals
Risks
- Table: Athletic Club is 10th in the league with 8 points from 6 games, Valencia is 19th with 5 points from 8 games
- Shots: Athletic Club averaged 4.0 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Valencia 2.4 per game
All probabilities
Result
Valencia39%
Draw30%
Athletic Club31%
Double chance
Valencia or draw69%
Athletic Club or draw61%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Valencia: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Athletic Club: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Athletic Club: 75% of all goals in the second half (12 of 16, last 12 games)
- Athletic Club: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Deportivo Alavés: 2 goals (83', 87')
Lineups
Valencia 4-2-3-1 · Athletic Club 4-2-3-1
Valencia
- 1 S. Dimitrievski
- 24 P. Maffeo Becerra
- 5 C. Tárrega Requeni
- 12 J. de Haas
- 14 J. Gayá Peña
- 18 J. García Vayá
- 2 G. Rodríguez
- 19 D. Raba Antolí
- 8 J. Guerra Moreno
- 7 A. Danjuma
- 9 H. Duro
Athletic Club
- 1 U. Simón Mendibil
- 15 H. Rincón Lumbreras
- 4 A. Paredes Casamichana
- 14 A. Laporte
- 31 J. Louisjean
- 24 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
- 16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
- 7 A. Berenguer Remiro
- 28 P. Canales Urtasun
- 23 R. Navarro Muñoz
- 9 I. Williams Arthuer
Substitutes
- 22 A. Martinez
- 23 F. Ugrinic
- 21 J. Vazquez Alcalde
- 4 M. Diakhaby
- 11 L. Rioja González
- 10 H. Elliot
- 27 D. Otorbi
- 37 A. Blazquez Labraca
- 25 K. van Oevelen
- 15 A. Dieng
- 39 R. Sato
- 33 Aaron Mayol
- 20 A. Rego Mora
- 5 Y. Álvarez López
- 3 D. Vivian Moreno
- 22 N. Serrano Galdeano
- 12 J. Areso Blanco
- 11 G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
- 21 M. Sannadi Harrouch
- 13 ?. Padilla Pérez
- 17 Y. Berchiche Izeta
- 6 B. Prados Díaz
- 18 M. Jauregizar Alboniga
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →