Match report →
Villarreal – Elche0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Villarreal
1.91
Total xG
3.00
Elche
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Villarreal | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.58 | +0.58 |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.31 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.29 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 11, 7 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 18, 7 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Pape Gueye on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 54% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Fer Niño on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Tete Morente on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 30% of goal output missing (only 80% available) |
Key factors
- Form: Villarreal with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, Elche with 1 win
- Table: Villarreal is 11th in La Liga with 8 points, Elche is 18th with 6 points
- Shots on target: Villarreal averaged 6 shots on target per match in recent games, Elche 4.4 per match
Risks
- Squad: Villarreal without T. Buchanan, in the starting lineup in 3 of the last 5 matches
- Away form: Elche scores 1.75 goals per match away in La Liga this season, Villarreal concedes 2 per match at home
All probabilities
Result
Villarreal55%
Draw25%
Elche20%
Double chance
Villarreal or draw80%
Elche or draw45%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
3:0
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Villarreal: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Villarreal: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 23)
- Elche: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Villarreal: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Villarreal 4-4-2 · Elche 5-4-1
Villarreal
- 25 P. Gulácsi
- 3 A. Freeman
- 8 J. Foyth
- 2 L. Costa
- 23 S. Cardona Bermúdez
- 11 Ilias Chakkour
- 14 S. Comesaña Veiga
- 16 Carlos Macià
- 21 T. Oluwaseyi
- 22 A. Pérez Gutiérrez
- 10 A. Moleiro González
Elche
- 1 M. Dituro
- 2 A. Sangaré Traoré
- 47 J. Morcillo Rodrigalvarez
- 23 V. Chust García
- 3 R. Revivo
- 11 G. Karabinaite
- 21 L. Cepeda
- 12 G. Villar del Fraile
- 8 M. Aguado Pallares
- 18 T. Lemar
- 24 A. Osorio
Substitutes
- 9 G. Mikautadze
- 1 L. Reis Júnior
- 6 P. Navarro Badenes
- 15 ?. Mouriño González
- 12 R. Palma Veiga
- 18 P. Gueye
- 7 G. Moreno Balaguero
- 20 C. Romero Serrano
- 28 J. Gaitán Diaz
- 27 N. El Jmili Ben Hamou
- 24 N. Saliba
- 5 A. Diatta
- 29 A. Houary Jeddoub
- 17 J. Fernández Pomares
- 16 M. Carvalho Neto
- 13 A. Iturbe Encabo
- 5 F. Redondo Solari
- 6 P. Bigas Rigo
- 22 Rubén Sáez
- 14 F. Niño Rodriguez
- 10 F. Buonanotte
- 20 J. Morente Oliva
- 9 E. Ponce Martínez
- 15 K. Lomónaco
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