Match report →
Getafe – Rayo Vallecano1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Getafe
1.19
Total xG
2.31
Rayo Vallecano
1.12
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Getafe | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.58 | +0.58 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.56 | |
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.20 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.01 | |
| Iván Azón not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.1 vs 0.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Getafe is 15th in the league with 8 points from 8 games, Rayo Vallecano is 14th with 8 points from 7 games
- Record: Both teams have 2 wins and 2 draws in the league this season (Getafe in 8 games, Rayo Vallecano in 7)
Risks
- Attack: Rayo Vallecano scores 1.57 goals per game in the league this season, Getafe 0.5 goals per game in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Getafe36%
Draw32%
Rayo Vallecano32%
Double chance
Getafe or draw68%
Rayo Vallecano or draw64%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.19 : 1.12, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
12%
1:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Getafe: 3.6 cards per game (39 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
- Getafe: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Partizan: 2 goals (87', 90')
- Getafe: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- Rayo Vallecano: 35% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 17)
- Rayo Vallecano: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (12 points lost)
Lineups
Getafe 4-4-2 · Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1
Getafe
- 13 D. Soria Solís
- 14 D. Carvajal Ramos
- 2 D. Dakonam Ortega
- 26 J. Valou
- 22 J. Mojica Palacio
- 17 F. Femenía Far
- 8 N. Gudelj
- 6 M. Martín Rielves
- 10 M. Satriano
- 11 R. Terrats Espacio
- 19 E. Ünal
Rayo Vallecano
- 25 E. Audero Mulyadi
- 20 I. Balliu Campeny
- 24 F. Lejeune
- 15 M. Sadick Aliu
- 17 A. Giner Pedrosa
- 8 U. López Cabrera
- 6 P. Ciss
- 7 I. Palazón Camacho
- 10 S. Camello Pérez
- 18 Á. García Rivera
- 19 J. De Frutos Sebastián
Substitutes
- 9 B. Mayoral Moya
- 5 A. Abqar
- 1 J. Letáček
- 3 D. Cordón Mancha
- 16 F. Gracia
- 21 A. García Robledo
- 28 A. Risco
- 35 D. Ferrer Martínez
- 4 S. Sazonov
- 15 J. Boselli Graf
- 14 H. Tsitaishvili
- 3 M. Kumbulla
- 22 P. Fernández Balboa
- 21 F. Perez Martinez
- 33 J. Vertrouwd
- 9 A. Zurawski
- 23 Ó. Martín Luengo
- 1 D. Cárdenas Lindez
- 4 P. Díaz Fanjul
- 37 R. Belaid Khellil
- 36 G. Bouare Samake
- 34 I. Alonso Martin
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