Match report →
Espanyol – Atlético de Madrid0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Espanyol
1.08
Total xG
2.79
Atlético de Madrid
1.72
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Espanyol | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.58 | +0.58 |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.46 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.37 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.20 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Álex Baena on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alejandro Grimaldo on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 26% of goal output missing (only 77% available) |
Key factors
- Form: Atlético de Madrid won 5 of their last 5 matches, Espanyol won 1
- Home/Away: Atlético de Madrid averages 2 goals per game away in the league this season, Espanyol 1.5 at home
- Shots: Atlético de Madrid averaged 7.4 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, Espanyol 3.8
Risks
- Squad: Atlético de Madrid without J. de Souza Cardoso, in the starting XI in 4 of the last 5 matches
- Away form: Atlético de Madrid concedes 1.25 goals per game away in the league this season, compared to 0.75 at home
All probabilities
Result
Espanyol22%
Draw27%
Atlético de Madrid51%
Double chance
Espanyol or draw49%
Atlético de Madrid or draw78%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
10%
0:2
9%
2:1
6%
1:3
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético de Madrid: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Atlético de Madrid: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Espanyol: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Espanyol: 3.1 cards per game (33 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
- Atlético de Madrid: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Real Sociedad: 3 goals (84', 90', 90+5')
Lineups
Espanyol 5-4-1 · Atlético de Madrid 4-4-2
Espanyol
- 1 Á. Fortuño Viñas
- 23 O. El Hilali
- 16 V. Drkušić
- 5 C. Riedel
- 6 L. Cabrera Sasía
- 21 R. Hinojo Estrada
- 28 F. Hernandez Coarasa
- 8 E. Expósito Jaén
- 10 P. Lozano Vizuete
- 15 B. Zaragoza Martínez
- 9 R. Fernández Jaén
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 21 C. Romero
- 17 D. Hancko
- 30 D. Martinez Moreno
- 20 G. Simeone
- 8 Pablo Barrios Rivas
- 23 M. Hjulmand
- 11 A. Lookman
- 15 J. David
- 7 K. Lee
Substitutes
- 2 A. Gorosabel Espinosa
- 13 M. Dmitrović
- 4 U. González de Zarate Quirós
- 24 T. Dolan
- 11 P. Milla Peña
- 7 J. Puado Díaz
- 18 M. Fernández Sánchez
- 26 R. Bauzà Sureda
- 22 A. Calatrava Torrado
- 3 Q. Hartman
- 20 G. Moscardo de Salles
- 14 U. Núñez Gestoso
- 22 A. Grimaldo García
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 10 A. Rodríguez
- 9 A. Sørloth
- 6 J. Resurrección Merodio
- 5 J. de Souza Cardoso
- 1 J. Musso
- 19 J. Álvarez
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 3 O. Vaargas
- 16 A. Ortiz Sanchez
- 27 J. Domínguez
- 46 J. Castillo Frutos
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