Match report →
Málaga – Real Sociedad2 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Málaga
1.25
Total xG
2.69
Real Sociedad
1.44
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Málaga | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.51 | +0.51 |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.24 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 6, 14 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 20, 14 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.09 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | +0.03 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Luka Sucic on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 32% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.1 vs 0.9 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Standings: Real Sociedad is 6th in the league with 13 points from 8 matches, Málaga is 20th with 4 points from 8 matches
- Home/Away: Real Sociedad scores 1.75 goals per match away in the league this season, Málaga 0.75 goals per match at home
Risks
- Rest days: Real Sociedad with 3 days since their last match
- Defense: Real Sociedad concedes 2.25 goals per match away in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Málaga31%
Draw29%
Real Sociedad40%
Double chance
Málaga or draw60%
Real Sociedad or draw69%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
5%
2:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Málaga: opponent scores first in 7 of 9 games (78%)
- Málaga: 4 of 8 goals scored by substitutes (last 10 games)
- Málaga: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 10 games (4 of 8 total)
- Real Sociedad: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Málaga 4-4-2 · Real Sociedad 4-4-2
Málaga
- 1 A. Herrero Peinador
- 31 R. Garrido Hierro
- 20 F. Calero Villa
- 15 ?. Recio Gutiérrez
- 12 J. Salinas Morán
- 10 D. Larrubia Romano
- 8 C. Dotor Gonzalez
- 23 I. Merino Rodríguez
- 18 P. Martínez Andrés
- 21 A. Niño Heredia
- 9 C. Ruiz Rubio
Real Sociedad
- 1 A. Remiro Gargallo
- 22 H. García
- 6 J. Martín Vicente
- 19 M. Sarr
- 3 A. Muñoz Capellán
- 14 T. Kubo
- 4 J. Gorrotxategi Etxaniz
- 18 C. Soler Barragán
- 7 A. Barrenetxea Muguruza
- 10 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
- 9 O. Óskarsson
Substitutes
- 17 E. Jauregi Escobar
- 3 C. Puga Medina
- 22 D. Lorenzo Guerrero
- 7 H. Abaida
- 6 R. Enríquez Rodríguez
- 13 C. López Nogueras
- 5 A. Pastor Carayol
- 4 E. Galilea Azaceta
- 14 R. Rodríguez Ruiz
- 11 J. Muñoz Benavides
- 39 Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh
- 2 J. Cajuste
- 16 J. Pacheco Dozagarat
- 21 Y. Herrera Ravelo
- 11 G. Ganchinho Guedes
- 24 L. Sučić
- 23 A. Zakharyan
- 5 I. Zubeldía Elorza
- 8 B. Turrientes Imaz
- 13 U. Marrero Larrañaga
- 17 S. Gómez
- 28 A. Lebarbier Null
- 29 A. Marchal Garcia
- 27 G. Carrera Zarranz
- 12 J. Nguono Ochieng
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →