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Deportivo La Coruña – Levante1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Deportivo La Coruña
1.75
Total xG
2.75
Levante
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Deportivo La Coruña | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −0.82 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.46 | |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.41 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.40 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.30 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 8, 9 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 17, 9 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Jon Ander Olasagasti on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Deportivo La Coruña sit 8th in the league after 8 games, Levante are 17th after 7 games
- Away: Levante scored 0.25 goals per game and conceded 1.50 per game in 4 league away games this season
Risks
- Squad: P. Aubameyang, Z. Eddahchouri are missing, they scored 6 of the 10 league goals for Deportivo La Coruña players (60%)
- Attack: Levante scored 2.2 goals per game in their last 5 games, Deportivo La Coruña conceded 1.6 per game
All probabilities
Result
Deportivo La Coruña54%
Draw26%
Levante20%
Double chance
Deportivo La Coruña or draw80%
Levante or draw46%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Levante: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Levante: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Deportivo La Coruña: 40% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 20)
- Levante: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 21)
Lineups
Deportivo La Coruña 4-4-2 · Levante 4-3-3
Deportivo La Coruña
- 13 L. Román Riquelme
- 23 J. Navarro Jiménez
- 20 J. Giménez de Vargas
- 22 B. Ede
- 12 G. Quagliata
- 19 L. Cruz Hernández
- 21 M. Soriano Carreño
- 8 D. Villares Yáñez
- 14 R. Rodríguez Gil Carcedo
- 10 Y. Hernández Cubas
- 32 B. Nsongo Tonfack
Levante
- 13 M. Ryan
- 29 N. Pérez Gómez
- 4 A. De la Fuente Barquilla
- 3 I. Ndukwe
- 23 M. Sánchez De La Peña
- 18 E. Bardeli
- 20 O. Rey Erenas
- 6 D. Requena Sánchez
- 7 R. Brugué Ayguadé
- 9 I. Romero de Ávila Araque
- 24 T. Fernández
Substitutes
- 18 J. Asp Jensen
- 24 A. Traoré Diarra
- 36 P. González Rey
- 33 K. Sánchez Rey
- 15 M. Loureiro Ameijeda
- 2 A. Altimira Reynaldos
- 25 Á. Fernández Llorente
- 4 L. Noubi Ngnokam
- 11 D. Mella Boullón
- 17 J. Esmoris Tasende
- 37 N. Carrillo
- 31 M. Ochoa Ruiz
- 16 A. Tape-Kobrissa
- 1 P. Cuñat Campos
- 22 J. Toljan
- 17 V. García Raja
- 8 J. Olasagasti Imizcoz
- 14 J. Cabello Trujillo
- 2 A. Mandi
- 27 F. Cortés Gracia
- 10 P. Ratkov
- 11 Y. Musuayi
- 36 I. Galdin
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