Match report →
Real Betis – FC Barcelona2 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Real Betis
1.13
Total xG
3.70
FC Barcelona
2.58
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Betis | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.43x league average) | +1.93 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | −0.87 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.54 | +0.54 |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.45 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4.2 goals/match) | +0.43 | |
| Rising form (4.2 vs 2.8 season average) | +0.43 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Isco on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 47% of goal output missing (only 66% available) | ||
| Raphinha on the bench (12 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Anthony Gordon on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Dani Olmo on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 84% available) |
Key factors
- Attack: FC Barcelona score 4.25 goals per match away from home in 4 league matches this season
- Form: FC Barcelona have won all 8 league matches this season, scoring 34 goals
- Head-to-head: FC Barcelona are undefeated in the last 5 direct duels with 3 wins and 2 draws
Risks
- Form: Real Betis are undefeated in their last 5 matches with 4 wins and 1 draw
- Home: Real Betis have conceded 0.5 goals per match at home in 4 league matches this season
All probabilities
Result
Real Betis14%
Draw19%
FC Barcelona68%
Double chance
Real Betis or draw32%
FC Barcelona or draw86%
No draw81%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Over 3.551%
Under 3.549%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:2
9%
1:3
8%
0:3
7%
2:2
5%
1:4
5%
2:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Barcelona: 11 wins in 12 games with xG above 1.0 (92% win rate)
- FC Barcelona: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Barcelona: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- FC Barcelona: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
- Real Betis: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 23)
- Real Betis: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Real Betis 4-2-3-1 · FC Barcelona 4-2-3-1
Real Betis
- 1 Á. Vallés Rosa
- 2 H. Bellerín Moruno
- 3 D. Llorente Ríos
- 16 D. Gómez
- 11 F. García Torres
- 6 F. Bernal Cruz
- 25 D. Ceballos Fernández
- 20 G. Lo Celso
- 8 P. Fornals Malla
- 10 A. Ezzalzouli
- 9 J. Hernández Suárez
FC Barcelona
- 1 J. Pons
- 23 J. Koundé
- 5 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 18 G. Martín Langreo
- 12 X. Espart Font
- 16 Rodri
- 8 P. López
- 10 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
- 7 F. López Marín
- 14 K. Adeyemi
- 9 G. de Jesus
Substitutes
- 13 D. Conde Alcolado
- 12 ?. Ortiz Monterrey
- 7 A. dos Santos
- 22 F. Alarcón Suárez
- 18 N. Deossa Suárez
- 17 R. Riquelme Reche
- 5 M. Bartra Aregall
- 21 M. Roca Junqué
- 4 Natan
- 19 T. Parrott
- 27 J. Morante Antúnez
- 15 Á. Fidalgo Fernández
- 25 D. Livaković
- 13 W. Szczęsny
- 20 D. Olmo Carvajal
- 3 A. Balde Martínez
- 21 F. de Jong
- 22 M. Bernal Casas
- 11 Raphinha
- 24 E. García
- 6 Pablo Gaviria
- 17 A. Gordon
- 2 J. Cavaco Cancelo
- 4 B. Pérez
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