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Real Madrid – Sevilla4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Real Madrid
2.84
Total xG
3.53
Sevilla
0.69
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Madrid | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.53x league average) | +0.71 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.51 | +0.51 |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | −0.38 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.25 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.21 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Vinicius Junior not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 24% of goal output missing (only 88% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Real Madrid score 3.25 goals per game at home in the league this season and concede 0.5 per game
- Form: Real Madrid won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Sevilla managed 2 wins in that period
- Head-to-head: Real Madrid won the last 5 meetings against Sevilla since 2016
Risks
- Away: Sevilla score 2 goals per game away from home in the league this season
- Defense: Real Madrid conceded 1.6 goals per game across their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Real Madrid81%
Draw14%
Sevilla6%
Double chance
Real Madrid or draw94%
Sevilla or draw19%
No draw86%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
3:0
11%
2:1
8%
4:0
8%
3:1
8%
4:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Madrid: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- Sevilla: 3.2 cards per game (36 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Real Madrid: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Real Madrid: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Real Madrid: 10 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Roma: 3 goals (83', 85', 90')
- Sevilla: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Espanyol: 2 goals (82', 90+1')
Lineups
Real Madrid 4-2-3-1 · Sevilla 4-2-3-1
Real Madrid
- 1 T. Courtois
- 8 F. Valverde Dipetta
- 16 I. Konaté
- 4 D. Huijsen
- 17 M. Cucurella
- 15 A. Guler
- 14 A. Tchouaméni
- 9 E. Moreira de Sousa
- 5 J. Bellingham
- 25 Y. Diomande
- 10 K. Mbappé
Sevilla
- 1 O. Vlachodimos
- 2 J. Iglesias Sánchez
- 5 A. López Gallo
- 4 Kike Salas
- 17 G. Suazo Urbina
- 6 L. Agoume
- 24 Y. Fofana
- 11 R. Vargas
- 10 G. Fernández Castellano
- 20 F. Sanches Correia
- 9 R. Ure
Substitutes
- 19 C. Espí Escrihuela
- 18 A. Carreras
- 6 E. Camavinga
- 21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
- 3 É. Gabriel Militão
- 22 A. Rüdiger
- 13 A. Lunin
- 12 T. Alexander-Arnold
- 20 B. Silva
- 24 D. Dumfries
- 27 T. Pitarch Pinar
- 31 J. Navarro Jiménez
- 12 A. Sangante
- 21 C. Ejuke
- 15 F. Rodrigues Cardoso
- 7 A. González Martínez
- 22 José Ángel Carmona
- 14 M. Bueno Sebastián
- 8 G. Kochorashvili
- 33 R. Romero
- 13 F. González Pérez
- 3 J. Del Romo
- 19 L. Stassin
- 27 N. Guillén Peguero
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