Match report →
Osasuna – Racing Santander2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Osasuna
1.62
Total xG
2.86
Racing Santander
1.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Osasuna | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.53 | +0.53 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| Raúl García on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Away: Racing Santander concede 4 goals per game away in the league this season
- xG: Osasuna allowed 2.00 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 3.4 goals per game
Risks
- Form: Osasuna are winless in their last 5 games with 1 draw and 4 losses
- Attack: Osasuna score 0.5 goals per game at home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Osasuna45%
Draw27%
Racing Santander28%
Double chance
Osasuna or draw72%
Racing Santander or draw55%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Racing Santander: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Osasuna: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Racing Santander: 3 cards per game (34 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Osasuna: 42% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 12)
- Racing Santander: 62% of all goals in the first half (13 of 21, last 12 games)
- Osasuna: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
Lineups
Osasuna 4-3-3 · Racing Santander 4-2-3-1
Osasuna
- 13 A. Fernández Abarisketa
- 19 V. Rosier
- 24 A. Catena Marugán
- 22 F. Boyomos
- 23 A. Bretones Cruz
- 7 J. Moncayola Tollar
- 8 I. Muñoz Cameros
- 16 M. Gómez Bordonado
- 14 R. García Santos
- 17 A. Budimir
- 21 J. Dubasin
Racing Santander
- 13 J. Agirrezabala
- 2 A. Mantilla Pérez
- 5 P. Ramón Parra
- 24 J. Belocian
- 17 J. Salinas Viadero
- 23 I. Martín Núñez
- 18 M. Prati
- 20 S. Canales Madrazo
- 8 D. Ribeiro Almeida
- 10 I. Vicente Elorduy
- 21 M. Zabiri
Substitutes
- 15 D. Rico Salguero
- 27 ?. Arguibide Goñi
- 29 A. Osambela Larraya
- 11 E. Barja Afonso
- 9 R. García de Haro
- 1 S. Herrera Pirón
- 6 L. Torró Marset
- 18 R. Moro Prescoli
- 26 M. Echegoyen Berrozpe
- 31 R. Fernández Rodríguez
- 48 R. Yeboah
- 35 U. Santos Mañeru
- 15 P. García Fernández
- 6 Í. Sainz Maza Serna
- 9 J. Arana Gómez
- 12 A. Villalibre Molina
- 16 F. González Molino
- 11 A. Martín García
- 14 M. Gueye
- 7 G. Guliashvili
- 19 I. Luque Sierra
- 3 A. Martín Caricol
- 22 P. de Jesus Gomes
- 31 L. Gómez Rodríguez
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →