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Celta de Vigo – Deportivo Alavés2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Celta de Vigo
1.39
Total xG
2.43
Deportivo Alavés
1.04
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Celta de Vigo | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −1.01 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.53 | +0.53 |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.53 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.03 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Miguel Román not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 47% of goal output missing (only 54% available) | ||
| Mariano Díaz on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ángel Pérez not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 66% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/away: Celta de Vigo score 1.75 goals per game at home this season, Deportivo Alavés 0.67 per game away
- Head-to-head: Celta de Vigo won 2 of the 4 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Alavés won 1
Risks
- Squad: M. Román González, C. Starfelt and P. Durán Fernández are missing, scoring 4 of Celta de Vigo's 8 league goals (50%)
- Table: Deportivo Alavés are 7th in the league with 11 points from 8 games, Celta de Vigo are 11th with 8 points
- Rest days: Celta de Vigo with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Celta de Vigo43%
Draw30%
Deportivo Alavés26%
Double chance
Celta de Vigo or draw74%
Deportivo Alavés or draw57%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Celta de Vigo with Hugo Álvarez starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.5 (14/6 games, last 30)
- Celta de Vigo: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (10 points lost)
- Deportivo Alavés: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Celta de Vigo: first goal in 6 of 9 games (67%)
Lineups
Celta de Vigo 3-4-3 · Deportivo Alavés 5-3-2
Celta de Vigo
- 13 I. Radu
- 20 J. Rodríguez Galiano
- 18 Y. Lago Amil
- 21 S. Cáceres Ramos
- 5 S. Carreira Vilariño
- 30 H. Garcia Hoz
- 6 Ilaix Moriba
- 23 H. Álvarez Antúnez
- 24 C. Driouech
- 9 F. Jutlgà Blanc
- 19 W. Swedberg
Deportivo Alavés
- 1 A. Sivera Salvá
- 14 N. Tenaglia
- 17 J. Castro Otto
- 16 V. Koski
- 2 N. Valentini
- 21 A. Rebbach
- 19 P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
- 8 A. Blanco Conde
- 10 C. Aleña Castillo
- 11 A. Martínez López
- 15 L. Boyé
Substitutes
- 4 A. Faye
- 14 A. Febas Pérez
- 15 Á. Núñez Cobo
- 17 J. Rueda García
- 3 M. Alonso Mendoza
- 10 I. Aspas Juncal
- 25 I. Villar Martínez
- 22 J. Galán Gil
- 1 A. Bayındır
- 31 ?. Arcos Cadilla
- 16 H. Sotos
- 28 A. Antañón Vieites
- 4 D. Suárez Fernández
- 23 C. Benavídez Protesoni
- 9 M. Díaz Mejía
- 3 Y. Enríquez Lekhedim
- 6 A. Guevara Lajo
- 13 A. Rodríguez Giménez
- 24 M. Diallo Diallo
- 12 H. Novoa Ramos
- 22 M. Rodríguez Vidal
- 31 G. Swiderski
- 20 A. Mañas Buenadicha
- 27 X. Oláiz Ibarzábal
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