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Atlético de Madrid – Deportivo La Coruña1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Atlético de Madrid
2.21
Total xG
3.06
Deportivo La Coruña
0.86
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético de Madrid | Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.57 | +0.57 |
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | −0.51 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.44 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.37 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.28 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 9, 7 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 2, 7 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| Attack strength (1.25x league average) | +0.01 | |
| Jonathan David on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Giuliano Simeone on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Luismi Cruz on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 76% available) |
Key factors
- Squad: P. Aubameyang, Z. Eddahchouri are missing, they scored 6 of the 11 league goals for Deportivo La Coruña players (55%)
- Form: Atlético de Madrid have 4 wins from their last 5 matches, Deportivo La Coruña have none in their last 5 matches
- Home/Away: Atlético de Madrid score 2.5 goals per match at home in the league this season
Risks
- Away: Deportivo La Coruña score 1.75 goals per match away from home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Atlético de Madrid67%
Draw21%
Deportivo La Coruña12%
Double chance
Atlético de Madrid or draw88%
Deportivo La Coruña or draw33%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
xG score
2:0
From xG 2.21 : 0.86, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
7%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético de Madrid: 7 wins in 8 games with xG above 1.0 (88% win rate)
- Atlético de Madrid: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Atlético de Madrid: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Real Sociedad: 3 goals (84', 90', 90+5')
- Deportivo La Coruña: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Atlético de Madrid: 70% of all goals in the second half (16 of 23, last 12 games)
Lineups
Atlético de Madrid 4-3-3 · Deportivo La Coruña 5-3-2
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 17 D. Hancko
- 22 A. Grimaldo García
- 8 Pablo Barrios Rivas
- 23 M. Hjulmand
- 10 A. Rodríguez
- 7 K. Lee
- 19 J. Álvarez
- 11 A. Lookman
Deportivo La Coruña
- 13 L. Román Riquelme
- 11 D. Mella Boullón
- 2 A. Altimira Reynaldos
- 20 J. Giménez de Vargas
- 15 M. Loureiro Ameijeda
- 12 G. Quagliata
- 21 M. Soriano Carreño
- 16 L. Amatucci
- 8 D. Villares Yáñez
- 32 B. Nsongo Tonfack
- 10 Y. Hernández Cubas
Substitutes
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 9 A. Sørloth
- 20 G. Simeone
- 1 J. Musso
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 15 J. David
- 25 S. Esquivel Gámez
- 3 O. Vaargas
- 30 D. Martinez Moreno
- 16 A. Ortiz Sanchez
- 27 J. Domínguez
- 46 J. Castillo Frutos
- 18 J. Asp Jensen
- 24 A. Traoré Diarra
- 33 K. Sánchez Rey
- 14 R. Rodríguez Gil Carcedo
- 35 R. López Durán
- 5 D. Barcia Rama
- 23 J. Navarro Jiménez
- 19 L. Cruz Hernández
- 25 Á. Fernández Llorente
- 4 L. Noubi Ngnokam
- 3 A. Comas Freixas
- 17 J. Esmoris Tasende
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