Match report →
Valencia – Villarreal1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Valencia
1.20
Total xG
2.83
Villarreal
1.64
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Valencia | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −0.86 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.56 | +0.56 |
| Attack strength (1.32x league average) | +0.54 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.41 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.23 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 12, 7 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 19, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Alberto Moleiro on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Valencia scores 0.4 goals per match at home in the league this season, Villarreal 1.4 per match away
- Table: Villarreal is 12th in the league with 9 points, Valencia is 19th with 6 points
- Shots: Villarreal averaged 5.4 shots on target per match in recent games, Valencia 2.6 per match
Risks
- Defence: Villarreal conceded 1.4 goals per match away in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Valencia27%
Draw27%
Villarreal46%
Double chance
Valencia or draw54%
Villarreal or draw74%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.20 : 1.64, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Valencia: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Villarreal: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Villarreal: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (11 points lost)
- Villarreal: 6 of 21 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Valencia 4-4-2 · Villarreal 4-4-2
Valencia
- 1 S. Dimitrievski
- 24 P. Maffeo Becerra
- 5 C. Tárrega Requeni
- 12 J. de Haas
- 14 J. Gayá Peña
- 27 D. Otorbi
- 2 G. Rodríguez
- 18 J. García Vayá
- 11 L. Rioja González
- 8 J. Guerra Moreno
- 7 A. Danjuma
Villarreal
- 25 P. Gulácsi
- 15 ?. Mouriño González
- 8 J. Foyth
- 12 R. Palma Veiga
- 3 A. Freeman
- 11 Ilias Chakkour
- 16 Carlos Macià
- 18 P. Gueye
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 7 G. Moreno Balaguero
- 22 A. Pérez Gutiérrez
Substitutes
- 22 A. Martinez
- 23 F. Ugrinic
- 21 J. Vazquez Alcalde
- 4 M. Diakhaby
- 9 H. Duro
- 19 D. Raba Antolí
- 10 H. Elliot
- 37 A. Blazquez Labraca
- 25 K. van Oevelen
- 15 A. Dieng
- 39 R. Sato
- 33 Aaron Mayol
- 2 L. Costa
- 9 G. Mikautadze
- 21 T. Oluwaseyi
- 1 L. Reis Júnior
- 23 S. Cardona Bermúdez
- 6 P. Navarro Badenes
- 14 S. Comesaña Veiga
- 10 A. Moleiro González
- 28 J. Gaitán Diaz
- 27 N. El Jmili Ben Hamou
- 13 R. Gómez Peris
- 5 A. Diatta
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