Match report →
FC Barcelona – Real Madrid1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
FC Barcelona
2.49
Total xG
3.81
Real Madrid
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Barcelona | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.14x league average) | +1.21 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.57 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.52 | +0.52 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.52 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (3.4 vs 2.8 season average) | +0.19 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.49x league average) | −0.07 | |
| Dani Olmo not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Vinicius Junior not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (3.9 vs 2.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: FC Barcelona average 4.25 goals per game at home in the league this season, Real Madrid 1.5 away per game
- Form: FC Barcelona won all 9 games in the league this season, Real Madrid won 7 of 9 games
- Head-to-head: FC Barcelona won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Real Madrid, Real Madrid 1
Risks
- Defense: FC Barcelona conceded 1.6 goals per game in their last 5 games, Real Madrid scored 2.8 per game
All probabilities
Result
FC Barcelona62%
Draw20%
Real Madrid18%
Double chance
FC Barcelona or draw82%
Real Madrid or draw38%
No draw80%
Goals
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.573%
Under 2.527%
Over 3.553%
Under 3.547%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.49 : 1.32, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
3:1
8%
2:2
6%
3:0
6%
3:2
5%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Barcelona: 11 wins in 12 games with xG above 1.0 (92% win rate)
- Real Madrid: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- FC Barcelona: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Real Madrid: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Real Madrid: 12 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Roma: 3 goals (83', 85', 90')
- FC Barcelona with Raphinha starting: 3.9 goals/game, without him: 1.9 (16/11 games, last 30)
Lineups
FC Barcelona 4-3-3 · Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
FC Barcelona
- 1 J. Pons
- 12 X. Espart Font
- 5 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 18 G. Martín Langreo
- 2 J. Cavaco Cancelo
- 7 F. López Marín
- 16 Rodri
- 8 P. López
- 10 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
- 11 Raphinha
- 17 A. Gordon
Real Madrid
- 13 A. Lunin
- 8 F. Valverde Dipetta
- 16 I. Konaté
- 4 D. Huijsen
- 17 M. Cucurella
- 20 B. Silva
- 14 A. Tchouaméni
- 15 A. Guler
- 5 J. Bellingham
- 25 Y. Diomande
- 10 K. Mbappé
Substitutes
- 14 K. Adeyemi
- 25 D. Livaković
- 13 W. Szczęsny
- 3 A. Balde Martínez
- 21 F. de Jong
- 22 M. Bernal Casas
- 6 Pablo Gaviria
- 9 G. de Jesus
- 29 H. Abdel Karim
- 4 B. Pérez
- 41 ?. Campos Camí
- 19 C. Espí Escrihuela
- 18 A. Carreras
- 6 E. Camavinga
- 21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
- 3 É. Gabriel Militão
- 22 A. Rüdiger
- 12 T. Alexander-Arnold
- 9 E. Moreira de Sousa
- 24 D. Dumfries
- 26 S. Mestre Sánchez
- 27 T. Pitarch Pinar
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