Match report →
Real Sociedad – Levante2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Real Sociedad
1.85
Total xG
2.96
Levante
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Sociedad | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.58x league average) | −0.86 | |
| Attack weakness (0.53x league average) | −0.70 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.56 | +0.56 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.44 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.43 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.28 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Carlos Soler on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ander Barrenetxea on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Adrián Dela not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Real Sociedad won 3 of their last 5 matches, Levante won 1 of their last 5 matches
- Table: Real Sociedad is 5th in the league with 16 points, Levante is 13th with 10 points after 9 matches
- Away: Levante scored 0.4 goals per match away in the league this season across 5 matches
Risks
- Attack: Real Sociedad scored 2.6 goals per match in 5 matches with xG data, but created 1.46 xG per match
- Home: Real Sociedad conceded 1.5 goals per match at home in the league this season across 4 matches
All probabilities
Result
Real Sociedad53%
Draw26%
Levante21%
Double chance
Real Sociedad or draw79%
Levante or draw47%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.85 : 1.11, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Sociedad: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Levante: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sevilla: 2 goals (90+2', 90+10')
- Real Sociedad with Gonçalo Guedes starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1 (14/7 games, last 30)
- Levante: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Real Sociedad 4-4-2 · Levante 4-4-2
Real Sociedad
- 1 A. Remiro Gargallo
- 22 H. García
- 6 J. Martín Vicente
- 19 M. Sarr
- 17 S. Gómez
- 24 L. Sučić
- 4 J. Gorrotxategi Etxaniz
- 8 B. Turrientes Imaz
- 11 G. Ganchinho Guedes
- 10 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
- 9 O. Óskarsson
Levante
- 13 M. Ryan
- 29 N. Pérez Gómez
- 2 A. Mandi
- 3 I. Ndukwe
- 23 M. Sánchez De La Peña
- 7 R. Brugué Ayguadé
- 8 J. Olasagasti Imizcoz
- 6 D. Requena Sánchez
- 24 T. Fernández
- 9 I. Romero de Ávila Araque
- 10 P. Ratkov
Substitutes
- 16 J. Pacheco Dozagarat
- 7 A. Barrenetxea Muguruza
- 18 C. Soler Barragán
- 21 Y. Herrera Ravelo
- 23 A. Zakharyan
- 5 I. Zubeldía Elorza
- 13 U. Marrero Larrañaga
- 15 P. Marín Tejada
- 3 A. Muñoz Capellán
- 14 T. Kubo
- 2 J. Aramburu
- 12 J. Nguono Ochieng
- 16 A. Tape-Kobrissa
- 21 K. Etta Eyong
- 1 P. Cuñat Campos
- 22 J. Toljan
- 17 V. García Raja
- 20 O. Rey Erenas
- 14 J. Cabello Trujillo
- 5 H. Sotelo
- 27 F. Cortés Gracia
- 32 A. Primo Hernández
- 33 M. Santos
- 11 Y. Musuayi
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