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Racing Santander – Espanyol2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Racing Santander
1.48
Total xG
2.78
Espanyol
1.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Racing Santander | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.56 | +0.56 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Racing Santander averages 2.25 goals scored per game at home in the league this season, Espanyol concedes 1.25 away per game
- Shots: Racing Santander averaged 4.8 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Espanyol 3.6 per game
Risks
- Defence: Racing Santander conceded 2.78 goals per game in the league this season, Espanyol 1.33 per game
- xG: Espanyol allowed 1.12 xG against per game in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 1.4 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Racing Santander40%
Draw28%
Espanyol32%
Double chance
Racing Santander or draw68%
Espanyol or draw60%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.48 : 1.30, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Racing Santander: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Racing Santander: 71% of all goals in the first half (12 of 17, last 12 games)
- Racing Santander: 3.1 cards per game (35 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Espanyol: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Racing Santander 4-2-3-1 · Espanyol 4-2-3-1
Racing Santander
- 13 J. Agirrezabala
- 2 A. Mantilla Pérez
- 5 P. Ramón Parra
- 24 J. Belocian
- 17 J. Salinas Viadero
- 18 M. Prati
- 23 I. Martín Núñez
- 11 A. Martín García
- 20 S. Canales Madrazo
- 10 I. Vicente Elorduy
- 21 M. Zabiri
Espanyol
- 1 Á. Fortuño Viñas
- 23 O. El Hilali
- 16 V. Drkušić
- 6 L. Cabrera Sasía
- 3 Q. Hartman
- 8 E. Expósito Jaén
- 10 P. Lozano Vizuete
- 28 F. Hernandez Coarasa
- 22 A. Calatrava Torrado
- 15 B. Zaragoza Martínez
- 9 R. Fernández Jaén
Substitutes
- 8 D. Ribeiro Almeida
- 15 P. García Fernández
- 6 Í. Sainz Maza Serna
- 9 J. Arana Gómez
- 12 A. Villalibre Molina
- 16 F. González Molino
- 14 M. Gueye
- 7 G. Guliashvili
- 19 I. Luque Sierra
- 3 A. Martín Caricol
- 22 P. de Jesus Gomes
- 31 L. Gómez Rodríguez
- 2 A. Gorosabel Espinosa
- 13 M. Dmitrović
- 5 C. Riedel
- 4 U. González de Zarate Quirós
- 24 T. Dolan
- 11 P. Milla Peña
- 7 J. Puado Díaz
- 21 R. Hinojo Estrada
- 18 M. Fernández Sánchez
- 26 R. Bauzà Sureda
- 20 G. Moscardo de Salles
- 14 U. Núñez Gestoso
- 18 J. Partington
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