Match report →
Sevilla – Osasuna2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Sevilla
1.53
Total xG
2.67
Osasuna
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sevilla | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.81 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.52 | +0.52 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.46 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Robbie Ure on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Miguel Ángel Sierra Ortega not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Raúl García on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Table: Sevilla are 6th in the league with 14 points from 9 matches, while Osasuna are 12th with 11 points
- Away form: Osasuna have conceded 3.75 goals per match across 4 away league games this season
- Form: Sevilla won 2 of their last 5 matches, while Osasuna suffered 3 defeats in that period
Risks
- Defense: Sevilla have conceded 2 goals per match in their last 5 games
- Attack: Osasuna have scored 1.5 goals per match across 4 away league games this season
All probabilities
Result
Sevilla45%
Draw29%
Osasuna27%
Double chance
Sevilla or draw73%
Osasuna or draw55%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.53 : 1.14, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sevilla: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Osasuna: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Sevilla: 3 cards per game (33 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Sevilla: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Osasuna: 42% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 12)
- Osasuna: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
Lineups
Sevilla 4-4-2 · Osasuna 4-3-3
Sevilla
- 1 O. Vlachodimos
- 2 J. Iglesias Sánchez
- 5 A. López Gallo
- 4 Kike Salas
- 17 G. Suazo Urbina
- 21 C. Ejuke
- 24 Y. Fofana
- 6 L. Agoume
- 20 F. Sanches Correia
- 19 L. Stassin
- 16 I. Romero Bernal
Osasuna
- 13 A. Fernández Abarisketa
- 19 V. Rosier
- 24 A. Catena Marugán
- 22 F. Boyomos
- 23 A. Bretones Cruz
- 7 J. Moncayola Tollar
- 6 L. Torró Marset
- 16 M. Gómez Bordonado
- 14 R. García Santos
- 17 A. Budimir
- 21 J. Dubasin
Substitutes
- 12 A. Sangante
- 10 G. Fernández Castellano
- 15 F. Rodrigues Cardoso
- 7 A. González Martínez
- 22 José Ángel Carmona
- 11 R. Vargas
- 14 M. Bueno Sebastián
- 18 J. Guridi Aldalur
- 8 G. Kochorashvili
- 13 F. González Pérez
- 3 J. Del Romo
- 9 R. Ure
- 15 D. Rico Salguero
- 27 ?. Arguibide Goñi
- 29 A. Osambela Larraya
- 11 E. Barja Afonso
- 9 R. García de Haro
- 1 S. Herrera Pirón
- 8 I. Muñoz Cameros
- 18 R. Moro Prescoli
- 26 M. Echegoyen Berrozpe
- 31 R. Fernández Rodríguez
- 48 R. Yeboah
- 35 U. Santos Mañeru
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