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Deportivo Alavés – Málaga1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Deportivo Alavés
1.79
Total xG
2.79
Málaga
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Deportivo Alavés | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.52x league average) | −0.79 | |
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −0.75 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.58 | +0.58 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.46 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.35 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.21 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 7, 13 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 20, 13 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Pablo Martínez not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Deportivo Alavés score 2 goals per match at home in the league, Málaga score 0.25 goals per match away
- Table: Deportivo Alavés are 7th with 11 points from 9 matches, Málaga are 20th with 4 points
- Attack: Málaga scored 0.67 goals per match in 9 league games this season, Deportivo Alavés scored 1.44 goals per match
Risks
- Form: Deportivo Alavés are winless in their last 5 matches with 1 draw and 4 losses
- Possession: Málaga averaged 50% possession per match over the last 5 games, Deportivo Alavés averaged 40.4% per match
All probabilities
Result
Deportivo Alavés55%
Draw26%
Málaga19%
Double chance
Deportivo Alavés or draw81%
Málaga or draw45%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.79 : 1.00, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Málaga: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Málaga: 4 of 10 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)
- Málaga: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 11 games (4 of 10 total)
- Deportivo Alavés: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Getafe: 2 goals (90+1', 90+4')
Lineups
Deportivo Alavés 5-3-2 · Málaga 4-1-4-1
Deportivo Alavés
- 1 A. Sivera Salvá
- 7 A. Pérez Hidalgo
- 14 N. Tenaglia
- 16 V. Koski
- 2 N. Valentini
- 21 A. Rebbach
- 19 P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
- 8 A. Blanco Conde
- 10 C. Aleña Castillo
- 15 L. Boyé
- 9 M. Díaz Mejía
Málaga
- 1 A. Herrero Peinador
- 3 C. Puga Medina
- 15 ?. Recio Gutiérrez
- 4 E. Galilea Azaceta
- 31 R. Garrido Hierro
- 6 R. Enríquez Rodríguez
- 10 D. Larrubia Romano
- 8 C. Dotor Gonzalez
- 22 D. Lorenzo Guerrero
- 39 Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh
- 21 A. Niño Heredia
Substitutes
- 11 A. Martínez López
- 17 J. Castro Otto
- 4 D. Suárez Fernández
- 23 C. Benavídez Protesoni
- 3 Y. Enríquez Lekhedim
- 13 A. Rodríguez Giménez
- 24 M. Diallo Diallo
- 12 H. Novoa Ramos
- 22 M. Rodríguez Vidal
- 33 R. Montero Fernández
- 20 A. Mañas Buenadicha
- 27 X. Oláiz Ibarzábal
- 20 F. Calero Villa
- 12 J. Salinas Morán
- 17 E. Jauregi Escobar
- 23 I. Merino Rodríguez
- 7 H. Abaida
- 13 C. López Nogueras
- 5 A. Pastor Carayol
- 9 C. Ruiz Rubio
- 14 R. Rodríguez Ruiz
- 2 J. Cajuste
- 25 J. Berrocal González
- 32 J. Fernández Martin
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