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Rayo Vallecano – Elche0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Rayo Vallecano
1.67
Total xG
2.77
Elche
1.10
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Rayo Vallecano | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.65 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.56 | +0.56 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.40 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Tete Morente on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Rayo Vallecano scores 2 goals per game at home in the league this season, Elche 1.4 goals per game away
- Table: Rayo Vallecano is 14th with 9 points from 8 games, Elche is 18th with 7 points from 9 games
- Possession: Rayo Vallecano averaged 57.2% possession in the last 5 games, Elche 46.4% possession
Risks
- Defense: Rayo Vallecano concedes 2.12 goals per game in the league this season, Elche 1.2 goals per game away
- Form: Elche conceded 1 goal per game in the last 5 games, Rayo Vallecano 1.8 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Rayo Vallecano49%
Draw27%
Elche24%
Double chance
Rayo Vallecano or draw76%
Elche or draw51%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.66 : 1.10, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rayo Vallecano: 35% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 17)
- Rayo Vallecano: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (12 points lost)
- Elche: 2.8 cards per game (32 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1 · Elche 4-3-3
Rayo Vallecano
- 25 E. Audero Mulyadi
- 20 I. Balliu Campeny
- 24 F. Lejeune
- 15 M. Sadick Aliu
- 17 A. Giner Pedrosa
- 6 P. Ciss
- 8 U. López Cabrera
- 19 J. De Frutos Sebastián
- 4 P. Díaz Fanjul
- 18 Á. García Rivera
- 10 S. Camello Pérez
Elche
- 1 M. Dituro
- 2 A. Sangaré Traoré
- 5 F. Redondo Solari
- 23 V. Chust García
- 3 R. Revivo
- 12 G. Villar del Fraile
- 47 J. Morcillo Rodrigalvarez
- 18 T. Lemar
- 21 L. Cepeda
- 14 F. Niño Rodriguez
- 11 G. Karabinaite
Substitutes
- 14 H. Tsitaishvili
- 3 M. Kumbulla
- 22 P. Fernández Balboa
- 21 F. Perez Martinez
- 33 J. Vertrouwd
- 9 A. Zurawski
- 23 Ó. Martín Luengo
- 7 I. Palazón Camacho
- 37 R. Belaid Khellil
- 30 A. Molina Colorado
- 36 G. Bouare Samake
- 34 I. Alonso Martin
- 17 J. Fernández Pomares
- 19 G. Diangana
- 16 M. Carvalho Neto
- 13 A. Iturbe Encabo
- 6 P. Bigas Rigo
- 22 Rubén Sáez
- 26 M. Barzic Gutiérrez
- 10 F. Buonanotte
- 20 J. Morente Oliva
- 9 E. Ponce Martínez
- 15 K. Lomónaco
- 24 A. Osorio
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