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Athletic Club – Getafe4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Athletic Club
1.62
Total xG
2.42
Getafe
0.81
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Athletic Club | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.58x league average) | −0.73 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.54 | +0.54 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.41 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.19 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.7 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Robert Navarro on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.5 vs 0.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Getafe scored 0 goals in 4 away league games this season, Athletic Club scored 1.25 per game at home
- Possession: Athletic Club averaged 61% possession in their last 5 games, Getafe averaged 41.8%
Risks
- Squad: Athletic Club without A. Laporte, who started 5 of the last 5 games
- Head-to-head: Getafe won 2 of the last 4 meetings since 2024, Athletic Club 1
All probabilities
Result
Athletic Club55%
Draw28%
Getafe17%
Double chance
Athletic Club or draw83%
Getafe or draw45%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
xG score
1:0
From xG 1.62 : 0.80, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Getafe: 3.8 cards per game (42 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
- Athletic Club: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Getafe: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Partizan: 2 goals (87', 90')
- Getafe: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- Athletic Club: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
- Athletic Club with Nico Williams starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 1 (11/12 games, last 30)
Lineups
Athletic Club 4-2-3-1 · Getafe 5-4-1
Athletic Club
- 1 U. Simón Mendibil
- 15 H. Rincón Lumbreras
- 3 D. Vivian Moreno
- 4 A. Paredes Casamichana
- 17 Y. Berchiche Izeta
- 16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
- 28 P. Canales Urtasun
- 9 I. Williams Arthuer
- 7 A. Berenguer Remiro
- 10 N. Williams Arthuer
- 21 M. Sannadi Harrouch
Getafe
- 13 D. Soria Solís
- 17 F. Femenía Far
- 14 D. Carvajal Ramos
- 8 N. Gudelj
- 26 J. Valou
- 22 J. Mojica Palacio
- 11 R. Terrats Espacio
- 16 F. Gracia
- 6 M. Martín Rielves
- 10 M. Satriano
- 20 I. Monzón
Substitutes
- 20 A. Rego Mora
- 5 Y. Álvarez López
- 22 N. Serrano Galdeano
- 23 R. Navarro Muñoz
- 12 J. Areso Blanco
- 13 ?. Padilla Pérez
- 6 B. Prados Díaz
- 18 M. Jauregizar Alboniga
- 24 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
- 25 Á. Dias Fernandes
- 31 J. Louisjean
- 33 C. Imga Mitogo
- 9 B. Mayoral Moya
- 5 A. Abqar
- 1 J. Letáček
- 3 D. Cordón Mancha
- 19 E. Ünal
- 21 A. García Robledo
- 28 A. Risco
- 35 D. Ferrer Martínez
- 4 S. Sazonov
- 15 J. Boselli Graf
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