Match report →
Celta de Vigo – Real Betis0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Celta de Vigo
1.26
Total xG
2.62
Real Betis
1.37
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Celta de Vigo | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.57 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.54 | +0.54 |
| Attack strength (1.39x league average) | +0.50 | |
| Rising form (2.5 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.30 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.30 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Ferran Jutglà on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Cucho Hernández not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 67% available) |
Key factors
- Table: Real Betis is 4th in the league with 6 wins from 9 matches, Celta de Vigo 9th with 2 wins
- Shots: Real Betis averaged 6.6 shots on target per match in their last 5 matches, Celta de Vigo 3.6
- Home/Away: Celta de Vigo scores 1.8 goals per match at home in the league, Real Betis 1.5 away
Risks
- Head-to-head: Real Betis is winless in the last 4 meetings with Celta de Vigo, with 3 draws and 1 loss
- Away: Real Betis conceded 1.75 goals per match in 4 away league matches
All probabilities
Result
Celta de Vigo33%
Draw29%
Real Betis38%
Double chance
Celta de Vigo or draw62%
Real Betis or draw67%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.26 : 1.37, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Celta de Vigo with Hugo Álvarez starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.5 (15/6 games, last 30)
- Javi Rodríguez: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Real Betis: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 23)
- Real Betis: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Celta de Vigo 3-4-3 · Real Betis 4-2-3-1
Celta de Vigo
- 13 I. Radu
- 20 J. Rodríguez Galiano
- 18 Y. Lago Amil
- 3 M. Alonso Mendoza
- 17 J. Rueda García
- 6 Ilaix Moriba
- 14 A. Febas Pérez
- 22 J. Galán Gil
- 16 H. Sotos
- 11 P. Durán Fernández
- 23 H. Álvarez Antúnez
Real Betis
- 1 Á. Vallés Rosa
- 12 ?. Ortiz Monterrey
- 3 D. Llorente Ríos
- 4 Natan
- 16 D. Gómez
- 21 M. Roca Junqué
- 25 D. Ceballos Fernández
- 7 A. dos Santos
- 22 F. Alarcón Suárez
- 10 A. Ezzalzouli
- 18 N. Deossa Suárez
Substitutes
- 4 A. Faye
- 19 W. Swedberg
- 9 F. Jutlgà Blanc
- 10 I. Aspas Juncal
- 5 S. Carreira Vilariño
- 25 I. Villar Martínez
- 1 A. Bayındır
- 24 C. Driouech
- 28 A. Antañón Vieites
- 30 H. Garcia Hoz
- 21 S. Cáceres Ramos
- 13 D. Conde Alcolado
- 11 F. García Torres
- 20 G. Lo Celso
- 2 H. Bellerín Moruno
- 17 R. Riquelme Reche
- 8 P. Fornals Malla
- 5 M. Bartra Aregall
- 24 A. Ruibal García
- 19 T. Parrott
- 27 J. Morante Antúnez
- 15 Á. Fidalgo Fernández
- 31 M. González Pallarés
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