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Rayo Vallecano – Celta de Vigo3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Rayo Vallecano
1.47
Total xG
2.61
Celta de Vigo
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Rayo Vallecano | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −1.30 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.80 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.49 | +0.49 |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.38 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 8, 9 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 17, 9 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | −0.00 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Rayo Vallecano score 1.5 goals per game at home (4 games), Celta de Vigo 0.25 per game away (4 games)
- Shots: Rayo Vallecano averaged 4.2 shots on target per game in 5 games, Celta de Vigo 2.6 per game in 5 games
Risks
- Table: Celta de Vigo are 8th with 12 points from 10 games, Rayo Vallecano 17th with 9 points from 9 games
- Personnel: Rayo Vallecano without P. Ciss, in the starting XI in 5 of the last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Rayo Vallecano43%
Draw29%
Celta de Vigo28%
Double chance
Rayo Vallecano or draw72%
Celta de Vigo or draw57%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.47 : 1.14, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Celta de Vigo with Hugo Álvarez starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.4 (16/5 games, last 30)
- Rayo Vallecano: 38% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 16)
- Javi Rodríguez: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Rayo Vallecano: 2.9 cards per game (33 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Rayo Vallecano 4-3-3 · Celta de Vigo 3-4-3
Rayo Vallecano
- 25 E. Audero Mulyadi
- 2 A. Ratiu
- 24 F. Lejeune
- 15 M. Sadick Aliu
- 17 A. Giner Pedrosa
- 4 P. Díaz Fanjul
- 23 Ó. Martín Luengo
- 8 U. López Cabrera
- 19 J. De Frutos Sebastián
- 10 S. Camello Pérez
- 18 Á. García Rivera
Celta de Vigo
- 13 I. Radu
- 20 J. Rodríguez Galiano
- 18 Y. Lago Amil
- 21 S. Cáceres Ramos
- 17 J. Rueda García
- 6 Ilaix Moriba
- 14 A. Febas Pérez
- 22 J. Galán Gil
- 23 H. Álvarez Antúnez
- 9 F. Jutlgà Blanc
- 16 H. Sotos
Substitutes
- 14 H. Tsitaishvili
- 22 P. Fernández Balboa
- 21 F. Perez Martinez
- 33 J. Vertrouwd
- 9 A. Zurawski
- 1 D. Cárdenas Lindez
- 7 I. Palazón Camacho
- 11 R. Ntekja
- 20 I. Balliu Campeny
- 37 R. Belaid Khellil
- 36 G. Bouare Samake
- 4 A. Faye
- 19 W. Swedberg
- 11 P. Durán Fernández
- 3 M. Alonso Mendoza
- 10 I. Aspas Juncal
- 5 S. Carreira Vilariño
- 25 I. Villar Martínez
- 1 A. Bayındır
- 24 C. Driouech
- 28 A. Antañón Vieites
- 30 H. Garcia Hoz
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