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Getafe – Sevilla3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Getafe
1.06
Total xG
2.25
Sevilla
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Getafe | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.53 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.52 | +0.52 |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.25 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.19 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 6, 12 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 18, 12 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Iván Azón on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Robbie Ure on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Table: Sevilla is 6th in the league this season with 17 points, Getafe is 18th with 9 points
- Form: Getafe is winless in its last 5 matches with 3 losses, Sevilla won 2 of its last 5 matches
- Attack: Sevilla scores 1.6 goals per match in the league this season, Getafe averages 0.5 goals per match
Risks
- Schedule: Sevilla with 3 days since its last match
- Defense: Getafe concedes 0.6 goals per match at home in the league this season, Sevilla 1.8 per match away
All probabilities
Result
Getafe31%
Draw32%
Sevilla37%
Double chance
Getafe or draw63%
Sevilla or draw69%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.06 : 1.19, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
12%
0:1
11%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Getafe: 3.8 cards per game (41 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
- Getafe: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- Sevilla: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 19 total)
- Sevilla: 6 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Getafe: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- Sevilla: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Getafe 4-2-3-1 · Sevilla 4-4-2
Getafe
- 13 D. Soria Solís
- 14 D. Carvajal Ramos
- 15 J. Boselli Graf
- 2 D. Dakonam Ortega
- 26 J. Valou
- 8 N. Gudelj
- 16 F. Gracia
- 21 A. García Robledo
- 11 R. Terrats Espacio
- 10 M. Satriano
- 19 E. Ünal
Sevilla
- 1 O. Vlachodimos
- 2 J. Iglesias Sánchez
- 5 A. López Gallo
- 4 Kike Salas
- 17 G. Suazo Urbina
- 21 C. Ejuke
- 6 L. Agoume
- 24 Y. Fofana
- 20 F. Sanches Correia
- 19 L. Stassin
- 16 I. Romero Bernal
Substitutes
- 9 B. Mayoral Moya
- 17 F. Femenía Far
- 5 A. Abqar
- 1 J. Letáček
- 3 D. Cordón Mancha
- 23 O. Mangala
- 20 I. Monzón
- 28 A. Risco
- 35 D. Ferrer Martínez
- 4 S. Sazonov
- 36 I. Keita
- 12 A. Sangante
- 10 G. Fernández Castellano
- 15 F. Rodrigues Cardoso
- 7 A. González Martínez
- 22 José Ángel Carmona
- 11 R. Vargas
- 14 M. Bueno Sebastián
- 18 J. Guridi Aldalur
- 8 G. Kochorashvili
- 13 F. González Pérez
- 3 J. Del Romo
- 9 R. Ure
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