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Villarreal – Espanyol0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Villarreal
1.85
Total xG
3.01
Espanyol
1.16
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Villarreal | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.51 | +0.51 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 10, 8 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 18, 8 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.03 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| Pape Gueye not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Ayoze Pérez on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ilias Akhomach not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Villarreal won 2 of their last 5 matches, Espanyol suffered 4 defeats in their last 5 matches
- Table: Villarreal sits 10th in La Liga with 12 points, Espanyol is 18th with 8 points
- Head-to-head: Villarreal won all 4 previous meetings against Espanyol
Risks
- Squad: P. Gueye is missing, having scored 3 of the 14 league goals for Villarreal players this season (21%)
All probabilities
Result
Villarreal52%
Draw26%
Espanyol22%
Double chance
Villarreal or draw78%
Espanyol or draw48%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.85 : 1.16, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Villarreal: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Villarreal: 7 of 21 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Espanyol: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Espanyol: 3 cards per game (35 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Villarreal: 38% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 21)
Lineups
Villarreal 4-4-2 · Espanyol 4-2-3-1
Villarreal
- 25 P. Gulácsi
- 15 ?. Mouriño González
- 6 P. Navarro Badenes
- 12 R. Palma Veiga
- 23 S. Cardona Bermúdez
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 16 Carlos Macià
- 14 S. Comesaña Veiga
- 10 A. Moleiro González
- 7 G. Moreno Balaguero
- 9 G. Mikautadze
Espanyol
- 1 Á. Fortuño Viñas
- 23 O. El Hilali
- 16 V. Drkušić
- 6 L. Cabrera Sasía
- 21 R. Hinojo Estrada
- 26 R. Bauzà Sureda
- 8 E. Expósito Jaén
- 28 F. Hernandez Coarasa
- 15 B. Zaragoza Martínez
- 9 R. Fernández Jaén
Substitutes
- 22 A. Pérez Gutiérrez
- 2 L. Costa
- 19 N. Pépé
- 21 T. Oluwaseyi
- 1 L. Reis Júnior
- 20 C. Romero Serrano
- 27 N. El Jmili Ben Hamou
- 13 R. Gómez Peris
- 3 A. Freeman
- 30 C. Thiam
- 13 M. Dmitrović
- 24 T. Dolan
- 11 P. Milla Peña
- 10 P. Lozano Vizuete
- 7 J. Puado Díaz
- 18 M. Fernández Sánchez
- 3 Q. Hartman
- 20 G. Moscardo de Salles
- 14 U. Núñez Gestoso
- 32 J. Lopez Galvez
- 27 A. Timera
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