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Racing Santander – Real Madrid0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Racing Santander
1.00
Total xG
3.66
Real Madrid
2.67
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Racing Santander | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.43x league average) | +0.95 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.52 | +0.52 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.42 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.22 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.16 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap) | +0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.01 | |
| Jorge Salinas not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Federico Valverde not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Form: Real Madrid won 5 of their last 5 matches, Racing Santander 1
- Table: Real Madrid rank 3rd in the league after 10 matches, Racing Santander 15th
- Defence: Racing Santander concede 2.6 goals per game in the league this season, Real Madrid 1 per game
Risks
- Home form: Racing Santander score 2.2 goals per game at home in the league this season
- xG: Real Madrid scored 3 goals per game across 5 matches with xG data from 1.92 xG per game
All probabilities
Result
Racing Santander11%
Draw17%
Real Madrid72%
Double chance
Racing Santander or draw28%
Real Madrid or draw89%
No draw83%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Over 3.550%
Under 3.550%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.00 : 2.66, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
0:3
8%
1:3
8%
0:4
5%
1:4
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Madrid: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- Real Madrid: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Real Madrid: 12 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Roma: 3 goals (83', 85', 90')
- Real Madrid: 10 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Racing Santander: 3.2 cards per game (36 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Racing Santander: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Racing Santander 4-2-3-1 · Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
Racing Santander
- 13 J. Agirrezabala
- 2 A. Mantilla Pérez
- 5 P. Ramón Parra
- 24 J. Belocian
- 3 A. Martín Caricol
- 23 I. Martín Núñez
- 18 M. Prati
- 19 I. Luque Sierra
- 20 S. Canales Madrazo
- 10 I. Vicente Elorduy
- 21 M. Zabiri
Real Madrid
- 1 T. Courtois
- 12 T. Alexander-Arnold
- 16 I. Konaté
- 4 D. Huijsen
- 17 M. Cucurella
- 20 B. Silva
- 14 A. Tchouaméni
- 15 A. Guler
- 5 J. Bellingham
- 25 Y. Diomande
- 10 K. Mbappé
Substitutes
- 8 D. Ribeiro Almeida
- 15 P. García Fernández
- 6 Í. Sainz Maza Serna
- 9 J. Arana Gómez
- 12 A. Villalibre Molina
- 16 F. González Molino
- 4 J. Hernando Riol
- 14 M. Gueye
- 7 G. Guliashvili
- 22 P. de Jesus Gomes
- 1 S. Eriksson
- 19 C. Espí Escrihuela
- 18 A. Carreras
- 6 E. Camavinga
- 21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
- 3 É. Gabriel Militão
- 22 A. Rüdiger
- 13 A. Lunin
- 9 E. Moreira de Sousa
- 24 D. Dumfries
- 26 S. Mestre Sánchez
- 27 T. Pitarch Pinar
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