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Levante – Atlético de Madrid0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Levante
1.02
Total xG
3.18
Atlético de Madrid
2.16
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Levante | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.52 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.49 | +0.49 |
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | −0.34 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| Adrián Dela on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Jonathan David on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Atlético de Madrid with 4 wins in their last 5 matches, Levante with 1 win
- Table: Atlético de Madrid are in 2nd place with 25 points in the league, Levante in 15th with 10 points
- Home/Away: Levante conceded 2.5 goals per match at home in the league this season, Atlético de Madrid 1.0 away
Risks
- Attack: Levante scored 3.25 goals per match at home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Levante16%
Draw22%
Atlético de Madrid62%
Double chance
Levante or draw38%
Atlético de Madrid or draw84%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.02 : 2.16, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
0:2
10%
1:3
7%
0:3
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético de Madrid: 8 wins in 9 games with xG above 1.0 (89% win rate)
- Atlético de Madrid: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Levante: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sevilla: 2 goals (90+2', 90+10')
- Levante: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Atlético de Madrid: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Real Sociedad: 3 goals (84', 90', 90+5')
Lineups
Levante 4-2-3-1 · Atlético de Madrid 4-4-2
Levante
- 13 M. Ryan
- 22 J. Toljan
- 2 A. Mandi
- 3 I. Ndukwe
- 29 N. Pérez Gómez
- 8 J. Olasagasti Imizcoz
- 6 D. Requena Sánchez
- 7 R. Brugué Ayguadé
- 9 I. Romero de Ávila Araque
- 24 T. Fernández
- 21 K. Etta Eyong
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 17 D. Hancko
- 22 A. Grimaldo García
- 20 G. Simeone
- 8 Pablo Barrios Rivas
- 23 M. Hjulmand
- 10 A. Rodríguez
- 7 K. Lee
- 19 J. Álvarez
Substitutes
- 16 A. Tape-Kobrissa
- 1 P. Cuñat Campos
- 23 M. Sánchez De La Peña
- 17 V. García Raja
- 4 A. De la Fuente Barquilla
- 20 O. Rey Erenas
- 14 J. Cabello Trujillo
- 5 H. Sotelo
- 27 F. Cortés Gracia
- 10 P. Ratkov
- 33 M. Santos
- 11 Y. Musuayi
- 34 M. U. Domingo
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 9 A. Sørloth
- 1 J. Musso
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 21 C. Romero
- 11 A. Lookman
- 15 J. David
- 25 S. Esquivel Gámez
- 3 O. Vaargas
- 30 D. Martinez Moreno
- 16 A. Ortiz Sanchez
- 27 J. Domínguez
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