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FC Barcelona – Deportivo Alavés6 : 1
Why the model thinks so
FC Barcelona
4.03
Total xG
4.80
Deportivo Alavés
0.77
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Barcelona | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.84x league average) | +0.60 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.53 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.48 | +0.48 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| Anthony Gordon on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Dani Olmo not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Xavi Espart not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 22% of goal output missing (only 79% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: FC Barcelona average 3.6 goals per home match in the league this season, Deportivo Alavés 0.75 away
- Form: FC Barcelona won 9 of 10 league matches this season, Deportivo Alavés are winless in 5 matches
- Shots on target: FC Barcelona average 8 shots on target per match in their last 5 matches, Deportivo Alavés 3.8
Risks
- Form: FC Barcelona lost 2 of their last 5 matches across all competitions
- Head to head: Deportivo Alavés won the last direct meeting 1-0 in May 2026
All probabilities
Result
FC Barcelona90%
Draw7%
Deportivo Alavés3%
Double chance
FC Barcelona or draw97%
Deportivo Alavés or draw10%
No draw93%
Goals
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Over 3.570%
Under 3.530%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
4:0
From xG 4.03 : 0.77, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
3:0
9%
5:0
7%
4:1
7%
3:1
7%
6:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Barcelona: 11 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Barcelona: 10 wins in 12 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Deportivo Alavés: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Getafe: 2 goals (90+1', 90+4')
- FC Barcelona with Raphinha starting: 3.7 goals/game, without him: 1.9 (16/11 games, last 30)
- FC Barcelona: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
- Deportivo Alavés: 5 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
FC Barcelona 4-3-3 · Deportivo Alavés 4-5-1
FC Barcelona
- 1 J. Pons
- 4 B. Pérez
- 5 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 21 F. de Jong
- 2 J. Cavaco Cancelo
- 7 F. López Marín
- 16 Rodri
- 8 P. López
- 10 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
- 11 Raphinha
- 14 K. Adeyemi
Deportivo Alavés
- 1 A. Sivera Salvá
- 17 J. Castro Otto
- 14 N. Tenaglia
- 16 V. Koski
- 3 Y. Enríquez Lekhedim
- 7 A. Pérez Hidalgo
- 23 C. Benavídez Protesoni
- 6 A. Guevara Lajo
- 4 D. Suárez Fernández
- 21 A. Rebbach
- 15 L. Boyé
Substitutes
- 25 D. Livaković
- 13 W. Szczęsny
- 18 G. Martín Langreo
- 3 A. Balde Martínez
- 22 M. Bernal Casas
- 6 Pablo Gaviria
- 9 G. de Jesus
- 17 A. Gordon
- 29 H. Abdel Karim
- 41 ?. Campos Camí
- 11 A. Martínez López
- 8 A. Blanco Conde
- 9 M. Díaz Mejía
- 10 C. Aleña Castillo
- 19 P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
- 13 A. Rodríguez Giménez
- 24 M. Diallo Diallo
- 12 H. Novoa Ramos
- 22 M. Rodríguez Vidal
- 20 A. Mañas Buenadicha
- 2 N. Valentini
- 27 X. Oláiz Ibarzábal
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