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Deportivo La Coruña – Osasuna2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Deportivo La Coruña
1.70
Total xG
2.73
Osasuna
1.03
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Deportivo La Coruña | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.84 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.63 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.51 | +0.51 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.46 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Away: Osasuna concedes 3.4 goals per match away in the league this season, Deportivo concedes 1.0 per match at home
- Attack: Deportivo generated 1.57 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 0.8 goals per match
Risks
- Form: Deportivo went winless in their last 5 matches with 2 draws and 3 losses
- Squad: Deportivo without B. Ede, in 3 of the last 5 matches in the starting XI
All probabilities
Result
Deportivo La Coruña52%
Draw27%
Osasuna21%
Double chance
Deportivo La Coruña or draw79%
Osasuna or draw48%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.70 : 1.03, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Osasuna: 38% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 16)
- Deportivo La Coruña: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Deportivo La Coruña 4-2-3-1 · Osasuna 4-3-3
Deportivo La Coruña
- 13 L. Román Riquelme
- 2 A. Altimira Reynaldos
- 15 M. Loureiro Ameijeda
- 20 J. Giménez de Vargas
- 12 G. Quagliata
- 21 M. Soriano Carreño
- 16 L. Amatucci
- 11 D. Mella Boullón
- 19 L. Cruz Hernández
- 10 Y. Hernández Cubas
- 32 B. Nsongo Tonfack
Osasuna
- 1 S. Herrera Pirón
- 19 V. Rosier
- 24 A. Catena Marugán
- 22 F. Boyomos
- 23 A. Bretones Cruz
- 7 J. Moncayola Tollar
- 8 I. Muñoz Cameros
- 16 M. Gómez Bordonado
- 21 J. Dubasin
- 17 A. Budimir
- 18 R. Moro Prescoli
Substitutes
- 18 J. Asp Jensen
- 24 A. Traoré Diarra
- 7 P. Aubameyang
- 33 K. Sánchez Rey
- 14 R. Rodríguez Gil Carcedo
- 23 J. Navarro Jiménez
- 25 Á. Fernández Llorente
- 8 D. Villares Yáñez
- 4 L. Noubi Ngnokam
- 3 A. Comas Freixas
- 17 J. Esmoris Tasende
- 37 N. Carrillo
- 15 D. Rico Salguero
- 27 ?. Arguibide Goñi
- 29 A. Osambela Larraya
- 11 E. Barja Afonso
- 9 R. García de Haro
- 6 L. Torró Marset
- 13 A. Fernández Abarisketa
- 14 R. García Santos
- 26 M. Echegoyen Berrozpe
- 31 R. Fernández Rodríguez
- 48 R. Yeboah
- 35 U. Santos Mañeru
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