Match report →
Elche – Valencia0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Elche
1.57
Total xG
2.56
Valencia
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Elche | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −1.06 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.63 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.53 | +0.53 |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.45 | |
| Rising form (2.7 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.36 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Elche have 2 wins from their last 5 matches, Valencia 1 win
- Attack: Elche scored 1.4 goals per match in the league this season, Valencia 0.7 goals per match
Risks
- Home: Elche conceded 2.75 goals per match at home in the league this season in 4 matches
All probabilities
Result
Elche49%
Draw28%
Valencia22%
Double chance
Elche or draw78%
Valencia or draw51%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.57 : 0.99, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Valencia: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Elche 4-3-3 · Valencia 4-4-2
Elche
- 1 M. Dituro
- 2 A. Sangaré Traoré
- 5 F. Redondo Solari
- 23 V. Chust García
- 3 R. Revivo
- 12 G. Villar del Fraile
- 47 J. Morcillo Rodrigalvarez
- 18 T. Lemar
- 21 L. Cepeda
- 14 F. Niño Rodriguez
- 11 G. Karabinaite
Valencia
- 1 S. Dimitrievski
- 22 A. Martinez
- 5 C. Tárrega Requeni
- 18 J. García Vayá
- 14 J. Gayá Peña
- 24 P. Maffeo Becerra
- 2 G. Rodríguez
- 33 Aaron Mayol
- 11 L. Rioja González
- 8 J. Guerra Moreno
- 7 A. Danjuma
Substitutes
- 29 A. Houary Jeddoub
- 17 J. Fernández Pomares
- 19 G. Diangana
- 16 M. Carvalho Neto
- 13 A. Iturbe Encabo
- 6 P. Bigas Rigo
- 22 Rubén Sáez
- 10 F. Buonanotte
- 20 J. Morente Oliva
- 9 E. Ponce Martínez
- 15 K. Lomónaco
- 24 A. Osorio
- 6 U. Sadiq Mesbah
- 13 C. Rivero Sabater
- 23 F. Ugrinic
- 21 J. Vazquez Alcalde
- 4 M. Diakhaby
- 20 D. Foulquier
- 9 H. Duro
- 19 D. Raba Antolí
- 37 A. Blazquez Labraca
- 12 J. de Haas
- 15 A. Dieng
- 39 R. Sato
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