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Athletic Club – Real Sociedad2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Athletic Club
1.69
Total xG
2.90
Real Sociedad
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Athletic Club | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Rising form (3.7 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.69 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.53 | +0.53 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.35 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.34 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.25 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.25 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.13 | |
| Aitor Paredes on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Robert Navarro on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Athletic Club scores 1.8 goals per game at home in the league, Real Sociedad concedes 2.2 per game away
- Tactics: Athletic Club averaged 64.8% possession in recent games, Real Sociedad 51.8%
Risks
- Form: Real Sociedad has 4 wins from their last 5 games, Athletic Club 2
- Head-to-head: Real Sociedad won 3 of the last 5 meetings with 2 draws, Athletic Club 0
- Personnel: Athletic Club without I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria, who started 4 of the last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Athletic Club47%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad26%
Double chance
Athletic Club or draw74%
Real Sociedad or draw53%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.69 : 1.21, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Sociedad: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Real Sociedad: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Real Sociedad with Gonçalo Guedes starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1 (14/7 games, last 30)
Lineups
Athletic Club 4-4-2 · Real Sociedad 4-4-2
Athletic Club
- 1 U. Simón Mendibil
- 15 H. Rincón Lumbreras
- 3 D. Vivian Moreno
- 14 A. Laporte
- 17 Y. Berchiche Izeta
- 7 A. Berenguer Remiro
- 28 P. Canales Urtasun
- 24 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
- 10 N. Williams Arthuer
- 21 M. Sannadi Harrouch
- 9 I. Williams Arthuer
Real Sociedad
- 1 A. Remiro Gargallo
- 2 J. Aramburu
- 6 J. Martín Vicente
- 19 M. Sarr
- 17 S. Gómez
- 11 G. Ganchinho Guedes
- 4 J. Gorrotxategi Etxaniz
- 18 C. Soler Barragán
- 7 A. Barrenetxea Muguruza
- 24 L. Sučić
- 10 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
Substitutes
- 20 A. Rego Mora
- 5 Y. Álvarez López
- 22 N. Serrano Galdeano
- 23 R. Navarro Muñoz
- 12 J. Areso Blanco
- 13 ?. Padilla Pérez
- 8 O. Sancet Tirapu
- 6 B. Prados Díaz
- 18 M. Jauregizar Alboniga
- 4 A. Paredes Casamichana
- 31 J. Louisjean
- 34 J. Vizcay Hurtado
- 22 H. García
- 16 J. Pacheco Dozagarat
- 9 O. Óskarsson
- 21 Y. Herrera Ravelo
- 5 I. Zubeldía Elorza
- 8 B. Turrientes Imaz
- 13 U. Marrero Larrañaga
- 15 P. Marín Tejada
- 3 A. Muñoz Capellán
- 14 T. Kubo
- 32 A. Fraga Torres
- 12 J. Nguono Ochieng
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