Match report →
Real Betis – Málaga2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Real Betis
2.24
Total xG
3.19
Málaga
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Betis | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.53x league average) | −0.76 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.48 | +0.48 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.41 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.28 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 4, 16 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 20, 16 places gap) | +0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.02 | |
| Pablo Martínez not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Real Betis average 2 goals per game at home in the league, Málaga average 0.4 goals per game away
- Table: Real Betis sit 4th in La Liga with 20 points, Málaga are 20th with 5 points from 10 matches
- Form: Real Betis won 3 of their last 5 matches, Málaga remained winless in their last 5 matches
Risks
- Defense: Real Betis conceded 1.8 goals per game in their last 5 matches
- Draws: Málaga have recorded 5 draws in 10 league matches this season
All probabilities
Result
Real Betis65%
Draw21%
Málaga13%
Double chance
Real Betis or draw87%
Málaga or draw35%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.24 : 0.95, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
10%
1:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Málaga: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Real Betis: 36% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 22)
- Málaga: 4 of 11 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Real Betis with Isco starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 1.3 (10/11 games, last 30)
- Málaga: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 11 total)
Lineups
Real Betis 4-2-3-1 · Málaga 4-1-4-1
Real Betis
- 1 Á. Vallés Rosa
- 2 H. Bellerín Moruno
- 5 M. Bartra Aregall
- 4 Natan
- 11 F. García Torres
- 8 P. Fornals Malla
- 21 M. Roca Junqué
- 17 R. Riquelme Reche
- 22 F. Alarcón Suárez
- 10 A. Ezzalzouli
- 19 T. Parrott
Málaga
- 1 A. Herrero Peinador
- 3 C. Puga Medina
- 20 F. Calero Villa
- 4 E. Galilea Azaceta
- 31 R. Garrido Hierro
- 6 R. Enríquez Rodríguez
- 10 D. Larrubia Romano
- 8 C. Dotor Gonzalez
- 22 D. Lorenzo Guerrero
- 39 Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh
- 21 A. Niño Heredia
Substitutes
- 13 D. Conde Alcolado
- 25 D. Ceballos Fernández
- 16 D. Gómez
- 3 D. Llorente Ríos
- 20 G. Lo Celso
- 12 ?. Ortiz Monterrey
- 7 A. dos Santos
- 18 N. Deossa Suárez
- 24 A. Ruibal García
- 27 J. Morante Antúnez
- 15 Á. Fidalgo Fernández
- 31 M. González Pallarés
- 12 J. Salinas Morán
- 17 E. Jauregi Escobar
- 23 I. Merino Rodríguez
- 7 H. Abaida
- 13 C. López Nogueras
- 5 A. Pastor Carayol
- 9 C. Ruiz Rubio
- 14 R. Rodríguez Ruiz
- 2 J. Cajuste
- 25 J. Berrocal González
- 32 J. Fernández Martin
- 30 A. Céspedes Rubio
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →