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Atlético de Madrid – FC Barcelona1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Atlético de Madrid
1.64
Total xG
3.63
FC Barcelona
1.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético de Madrid | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.16x league average) | +1.17 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.45 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.26 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (3.4 vs 2.8 season average) | +0.18 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| Xavi Espart not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Rodri not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attack: FC Barcelona score 4.4 goals per game away in the league this season
- Shots: FC Barcelona averaged 7.2 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, Atlético de Madrid 4.2 per game
- Table: FC Barcelona lead the league with 30 points from 11 matches, Atlético de Madrid are 3rd with 28 points
Risks
- Defense: Atlético de Madrid have conceded 0.6 goals per game at home in the league this season
- Form: FC Barcelona lost 2 of their last 5 matches, Atlético de Madrid 1
All probabilities
Result
Atlético de Madrid31%
Draw24%
FC Barcelona45%
Double chance
Atlético de Madrid or draw55%
FC Barcelona or draw69%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Over 3.549%
Under 3.551%
Both teams score
Yes71%
No29%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.64 : 1.99, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
7%
2:2
7%
1:3
6%
2:3
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Barcelona: 12 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Atlético de Madrid: 7 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- FC Barcelona: 10 wins in 12 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- FC Barcelona: goal in the first 15 minutes in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- FC Barcelona: 7 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Atlético de Madrid: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
Lineups
Atlético de Madrid 4-4-2 · FC Barcelona 4-1-4-1
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 17 D. Hancko
- 22 A. Grimaldo García
- 20 G. Simeone
- 6 J. Resurrección Merodio
- 8 Pablo Barrios Rivas
- 10 A. Rodríguez
- 7 K. Lee
- 19 J. Álvarez
FC Barcelona
- 1 J. Pons
- 4 B. Pérez
- 5 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 18 G. Martín Langreo
- 2 J. Cavaco Cancelo
- 22 M. Bernal Casas
- 10 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
- 7 F. López Marín
- 8 P. López
- 17 A. Gordon
- 11 Raphinha
Substitutes
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 9 A. Sørloth
- 5 J. de Souza Cardoso
- 1 J. Musso
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 11 A. Lookman
- 23 M. Hjulmand
- 15 J. David
- 30 D. Martinez Moreno
- 16 A. Ortiz Sanchez
- 27 J. Domínguez
- 26 R. Hueso Moya
- 14 K. Adeyemi
- 25 D. Livaković
- 13 W. Szczęsny
- 15 A. Christensen
- 3 A. Balde Martínez
- 21 F. de Jong
- 24 E. García
- 6 Pablo Gaviria
- 9 G. de Jesus
- 29 H. Abdel Karim
- 41 ?. Campos Camí
- 30 E. Tunkara Yataberreh
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