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Real Sociedad – Rayo Vallecano1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Real Sociedad
1.73
Total xG
2.97
Rayo Vallecano
1.25
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Sociedad | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −0.67 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.33 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Mikel Oyarzabal on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Gonçalo Guedes on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Álvaro García not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 86% available) |
Key factors
- Table: Real Sociedad are 5th with 19 points from 11 games, Rayo Vallecano are 14th with 12 points from 10 games
- Away: Rayo Vallecano concede 2.6 goals per game away in the league, Real Sociedad score 1.4 goals per game at home
Risks
- Head-to-head: Rayo Vallecano won 2 of the last 5 meetings against Real Sociedad, with 2 draws and 1 loss
- Rest days: Real Sociedad with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Real Sociedad47%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano26%
Double chance
Real Sociedad or draw74%
Rayo Vallecano or draw53%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.72 : 1.25, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Sociedad: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Real Sociedad: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Real Sociedad: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Rayo Vallecano: 35% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 17)
- Rayo Vallecano: 2.9 cards per game (33 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Real Sociedad 4-2-3-1 · Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1
Real Sociedad
- 1 A. Remiro Gargallo
- 2 J. Aramburu
- 6 J. Martín Vicente
- 5 I. Zubeldía Elorza
- 3 A. Muñoz Capellán
- 8 B. Turrientes Imaz
- 18 C. Soler Barragán
- 14 T. Kubo
- 24 L. Sučić
- 7 A. Barrenetxea Muguruza
- 9 O. Óskarsson
Rayo Vallecano
- 25 E. Audero Mulyadi
- 2 A. Ratiu
- 24 F. Lejeune
- 15 M. Sadick Aliu
- 17 A. Giner Pedrosa
- 8 U. López Cabrera
- 6 P. Ciss
- 19 J. De Frutos Sebastián
- 4 P. Díaz Fanjul
- 14 H. Tsitaishvili
- 10 S. Camello Pérez
Substitutes
- 22 H. García
- 16 J. Pacheco Dozagarat
- 21 Y. Herrera Ravelo
- 10 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
- 11 G. Ganchinho Guedes
- 4 J. Gorrotxategi Etxaniz
- 23 A. Zakharyan
- 13 U. Marrero Larrañaga
- 15 P. Marín Tejada
- 17 S. Gómez
- 34 L. Beitia Aguirregomezcorta
- 27 G. Carrera Zarranz
- 12 J. Nguono Ochieng
- 22 P. Fernández Balboa
- 21 F. Perez Martinez
- 33 J. Vertrouwd
- 9 A. Zurawski
- 1 D. Cárdenas Lindez
- 7 I. Palazón Camacho
- 11 R. Ntekja
- 20 I. Balliu Campeny
- 26 M. de las Sías López
- 37 R. Belaid Khellil
- 36 G. Bouare Samake
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