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Málaga – Racing Santander1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Málaga
1.58
Total xG
2.94
Racing Santander
1.35
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Málaga | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.91 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.48 | +0.48 |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.31 | |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | +0.30 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.29 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.22 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ||
| Strong home record (1.2 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Racing Santander concedes 3.6 goals per game away in the league this season, Malaga scores 1 goal per game at home
- Defense: Racing Santander conceded 29 goals in 11 games in the league this season (2.64 per game)
Risks
- Form: Malaga is winless in the league this season after 11 games (5 draws, 6 losses)
- Attack: Malaga scored 0.73 goals per game in 11 games in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Málaga41%
Draw27%
Racing Santander31%
Double chance
Málaga or draw69%
Racing Santander or draw59%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.58 : 1.35, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Málaga: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Racing Santander: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Racing Santander: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Racing Santander: 67% of all goals in the first half (10 of 15, last 12 games)
- Málaga: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
Lineups
Málaga 5-3-2 · Racing Santander 4-2-3-1
Málaga
- 1 A. Herrero Peinador
- 31 R. Garrido Hierro
- 20 F. Calero Villa
- 5 A. Pastor Carayol
- 4 E. Galilea Azaceta
- 39 Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh
- 8 C. Dotor Gonzalez
- 6 R. Enríquez Rodríguez
- 22 D. Lorenzo Guerrero
- 21 A. Niño Heredia
- 9 C. Ruiz Rubio
Racing Santander
- 13 J. Agirrezabala
- 5 P. Ramón Parra
- 22 P. de Jesus Gomes
- 24 J. Belocian
- 17 J. Salinas Viadero
- 23 I. Martín Núñez
- 18 M. Prati
- 19 I. Luque Sierra
- 20 S. Canales Madrazo
- 10 I. Vicente Elorduy
- 21 M. Zabiri
Substitutes
- 18 P. Martínez Andrés
- 12 J. Salinas Morán
- 17 E. Jauregi Escobar
- 23 I. Merino Rodríguez
- 13 C. López Nogueras
- 10 D. Larrubia Romano
- 14 R. Rodríguez Ruiz
- 11 J. Muñoz Benavides
- 2 J. Cajuste
- 15 ?. Recio Gutiérrez
- 25 J. Berrocal González
- 32 J. Fernández Martin
- 8 D. Ribeiro Almeida
- 15 P. García Fernández
- 6 Í. Sainz Maza Serna
- 9 J. Arana Gómez
- 12 A. Villalibre Molina
- 16 F. González Molino
- 4 J. Hernando Riol
- 14 M. Gueye
- 7 G. Guliashvili
- 3 A. Martín Caricol
- 1 S. Eriksson
- 38 H. Sañudo
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