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Osasuna – Athletic Club1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Osasuna
1.28
Total xG
2.74
Athletic Club
1.46
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Osasuna | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Rising form (3.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.56 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.48 | +0.48 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.36 | |
| Attack strength (1.46x league average) | +0.24 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.21 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.11 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Aitor Paredes not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Standings: Athletic Club is 7th with 15 points from 10 matches, Osasuna is 15th with 11 points from 11 matches
- Possession: Athletic Club averaged 58.8% possession per match in the last 5 matches, Osasuna 49.6% per match
Risks
- Home/Away: Osasuna concedes 0.6 goals per match at home in the league this season, Athletic Club scores 0.75 per match away
- Squad: Athletic Club without M. Sannadi Harrouch, starting in 4 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Osasuna31%
Draw29%
Athletic Club40%
Double chance
Osasuna or draw60%
Athletic Club or draw69%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.28 : 1.46, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Osasuna: 35% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 17)
Lineups
Osasuna 4-3-3 · Athletic Club 4-2-3-1
Osasuna
- 13 A. Fernández Abarisketa
- 19 V. Rosier
- 22 F. Boyomos
- 24 A. Catena Marugán
- 23 A. Bretones Cruz
- 7 J. Moncayola Tollar
- 6 L. Torró Marset
- 16 M. Gómez Bordonado
- 14 R. García Santos
- 17 A. Budimir
- 18 R. Moro Prescoli
Athletic Club
- 1 U. Simón Mendibil
- 15 H. Rincón Lumbreras
- 3 D. Vivian Moreno
- 14 A. Laporte
- 17 Y. Berchiche Izeta
- 28 P. Canales Urtasun
- 24 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
- 7 A. Berenguer Remiro
- 23 R. Navarro Muñoz
- 10 N. Williams Arthuer
- 9 I. Williams Arthuer
Substitutes
- 15 D. Rico Salguero
- 27 ?. Arguibide Goñi
- 29 A. Osambela Larraya
- 11 E. Barja Afonso
- 9 R. García de Haro
- 1 S. Herrera Pirón
- 8 I. Muñoz Cameros
- 21 J. Dubasin
- 26 M. Echegoyen Berrozpe
- 31 R. Fernández Rodríguez
- 48 R. Yeboah
- 35 U. Santos Mañeru
- 20 A. Rego Mora
- 5 Y. Álvarez López
- 12 J. Areso Blanco
- 13 ?. Padilla Pérez
- 8 O. Sancet Tirapu
- 6 B. Prados Díaz
- 16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
- 18 M. Jauregizar Alboniga
- 25 Á. Dias Fernandes
- 31 J. Louisjean
- 33 C. Imga Mitogo
- 34 J. Vizcay Hurtado
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