Match report →
Espanyol – Deportivo La Coruña0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Espanyol
1.07
Total xG
2.51
Deportivo La Coruña
1.45
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Espanyol | Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.67 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.48 | +0.48 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.33 | |
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | −0.27 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.21 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 8, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 14, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Javi Hernández on the bench (0 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Bryan Zaragoza on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Deportivo La Coruña are 8th in the league with 14 points from 11 games, Espanyol are 14th with 11 points
- Shots: Deportivo La Coruña averaged 6.2 shots on target per game over their last 5 games, Espanyol 2.8 per game
- xG: Deportivo La Coruña generated 1.95 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 1.2 goals per game
Risks
- Squad: Deportivo La Coruña without B. Ede, who started in 3 of the last 5 games
- Away form: Deportivo La Coruña have conceded 1.6 goals per game away in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Espanyol26%
Draw30%
Deportivo La Coruña44%
Double chance
Espanyol or draw56%
Deportivo La Coruña or draw74%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.07 : 1.45, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Espanyol: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Espanyol: 3.1 cards per game (36 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Deportivo La Coruña: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Deportivo La Coruña: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Espanyol 3-4-1-2 · Deportivo La Coruña 4-2-3-1
Espanyol
- 1 Á. Fortuño Viñas
- 23 O. El Hilali
- 6 L. Cabrera Sasía
- 3 Q. Hartman
- 24 T. Dolan
- 8 E. Expósito Jaén
- 10 P. Lozano Vizuete
- 36 A. Vargas
- 22 A. Calatrava Torrado
- 11 P. Milla Peña
- 9 R. Fernández Jaén
Deportivo La Coruña
- 13 L. Román Riquelme
- 2 A. Altimira Reynaldos
- 20 J. Giménez de Vargas
- 15 M. Loureiro Ameijeda
- 12 G. Quagliata
- 16 L. Amatucci
- 21 M. Soriano Carreño
- 11 D. Mella Boullón
- 19 L. Cruz Hernández
- 10 Y. Hernández Cubas
- 32 B. Nsongo Tonfack
Substitutes
- 2 A. Gorosabel Espinosa
- 15 B. Zaragoza Martínez
- 13 M. Dmitrović
- 5 C. Riedel
- 28 F. Hernandez Coarasa
- 7 J. Puado Díaz
- 18 M. Fernández Sánchez
- 26 R. Bauzà Sureda
- 20 G. Moscardo de Salles
- 14 U. Núñez Gestoso
- 32 J. Lopez Galvez
- 16 V. Drkušić
- 18 J. Asp Jensen
- 24 A. Traoré Diarra
- 6 M. Casadó Torras
- 7 P. Aubameyang
- 33 K. Sánchez Rey
- 14 R. Rodríguez Gil Carcedo
- 23 J. Navarro Jiménez
- 25 Á. Fernández Llorente
- 8 D. Villares Yáñez
- 4 L. Noubi Ngnokam
- 17 J. Esmoris Tasende
- 37 N. Carrillo
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