Match report →
Sevilla – Deportivo Alavés0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Sevilla
1.47
Total xG
2.55
Deportivo Alavés
1.07
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sevilla | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.77 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.51 | +0.51 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.39 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.19 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.16 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Robbie Ure on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Away form: Alavés concedes 2.2 goals per game away in the league this season and scores 0.8 per game
- Table: Sevilla ranks 6th in the league with 17 points from 11 games, Alavés is 11th with 12 points
- Shots: Sevilla averaged 5.8 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Alavés 3.8 per game
Risks
- Head-to-head: Alavés won 2 of the last 5 meetings against Sevilla, with 2 draws and 1 win for Sevilla
- Defense: Sevilla conceded 1.73 goals per game in 11 games in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Sevilla45%
Draw29%
Deportivo Alavés26%
Double chance
Sevilla or draw74%
Deportivo Alavés or draw55%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.47 : 1.07, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Deportivo Alavés: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Getafe: 2 goals (90+1', 90+4')
- Deportivo Alavés: 6 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Sevilla: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Sevilla: 3 cards per game (32 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
- Sevilla: 6 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Sevilla: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 20 total)
Lineups
Sevilla 4-2-3-1 · Deportivo Alavés 3-5-2
Sevilla
- 1 O. Vlachodimos
- 2 J. Iglesias Sánchez
- 12 A. Sangante
- 4 Kike Salas
- 17 G. Suazo Urbina
- 24 Y. Fofana
- 6 L. Agoume
- 11 R. Vargas
- 16 I. Romero Bernal
- 20 F. Sanches Correia
- 19 L. Stassin
Deportivo Alavés
- 1 A. Sivera Salvá
- 14 N. Tenaglia
- 16 V. Koski
- 2 N. Valentini
- 7 A. Pérez Hidalgo
- 6 A. Guevara Lajo
- 8 A. Blanco Conde
- 19 P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
- 3 Y. Enríquez Lekhedim
- 11 A. Martínez López
- 15 L. Boyé
Substitutes
- 21 C. Ejuke
- 15 F. Rodrigues Cardoso
- 5 A. López Gallo
- 7 A. González Martínez
- 22 José Ángel Carmona
- 18 J. Guridi Aldalur
- 8 G. Kochorashvili
- 13 F. González Pérez
- 34 I. Ortín Muñoz
- 3 J. Del Romo
- 27 N. Guillén Peguero
- 9 R. Ure
- 21 A. Rebbach
- 17 J. Castro Otto
- 4 D. Suárez Fernández
- 23 C. Benavídez Protesoni
- 9 M. Díaz Mejía
- 10 C. Aleña Castillo
- 13 A. Rodríguez Giménez
- 24 M. Diallo Diallo
- 12 H. Novoa Ramos
- 22 M. Rodríguez Vidal
- 20 A. Mañas Buenadicha
- 27 X. Oláiz Ibarzábal
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