Match report →
Villarreal – Getafe2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Villarreal
1.89
Total xG
2.69
Getafe
0.80
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Villarreal | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.48x league average) | −0.70 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.37 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.2 vs 0.9 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Ayoze Pérez on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Iván Azón not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.5 vs 0.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Away: Getafe scored 0 goals and conceded 2.4 goals per game in 5 away matches in La Liga this season
- Attack: Villarreal averages 1.36 goals per game in La Liga this season, while Getafe averages 0.73 goals per game
- Possession: Villarreal averaged 51.8% possession per game in the last 5 matches, compared to 42.6% per game for Getafe
Risks
- Home: Villarreal has conceded 1.4 goals per game and scored 1.2 goals per game in 5 home matches in La Liga this season
- Head-to-head: Getafe won the most recent meeting 2-1 at Villarreal in February 2026
All probabilities
Result
Villarreal62%
Draw24%
Getafe14%
Double chance
Villarreal or draw86%
Getafe or draw38%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
1:0
From xG 1.89 : 0.80, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
12%
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Getafe: 3.5 cards per game (38 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
- Villarreal: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Villarreal: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 19 total)
- Villarreal: 6 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Getafe: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
- Getafe: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
Lineups
Villarreal 4-2-3-1 · Getafe 4-1-4-1
Villarreal
- 25 P. Gulácsi
- 15 ?. Mouriño González
- 2 L. Costa
- 12 R. Palma Veiga
- 20 C. Romero Serrano
- 16 Carlos Macià
- 18 P. Gueye
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 10 A. Moleiro González
- 21 T. Oluwaseyi
- 9 G. Mikautadze
Getafe
- 13 D. Soria Solís
- 14 D. Carvajal Ramos
- 15 J. Boselli Graf
- 2 D. Dakonam Ortega
- 22 J. Mojica Palacio
- 8 N. Gudelj
- 21 A. García Robledo
- 23 O. Mangala
- 6 M. Martín Rielves
- 10 M. Satriano
- 19 E. Ünal
Substitutes
- 22 A. Pérez Gutiérrez
- 19 N. Pépé
- 1 L. Reis Júnior
- 23 S. Cardona Bermúdez
- 6 P. Navarro Badenes
- 14 S. Comesaña Veiga
- 27 N. El Jmili Ben Hamou
- 24 N. Saliba
- 13 R. Gómez Peris
- 3 A. Freeman
- 17 F. Femenía Far
- 5 A. Abqar
- 1 J. Letáček
- 3 D. Cordón Mancha
- 11 R. Terrats Espacio
- 16 F. Gracia
- 20 I. Monzón
- 28 A. Risco
- 26 J. Valou
- 35 D. Ferrer Martínez
- 4 S. Sazonov
- 36 I. Keita
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