Match report →
Valencia – Real Madrid0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Valencia
0.91
Total xG
3.06
Real Madrid
2.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Valencia | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.46x league average) | +1.17 | |
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.58 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.56 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.27 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.27 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.25 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 3, 16 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 19, 16 places gap) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Real Madrid with 5 wins in their last 5 matches, Valencia with 1 win
- Home/Away: Real Madrid score 1.83 goals per match away in the league this season, Valencia score 0.5 at home
- Table: Real Madrid are 3rd with 27 points from 11 matches, Valencia are 19th with 9 points
Risks
- Rest days: Real Madrid with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Valencia14%
Draw22%
Real Madrid65%
Double chance
Valencia or draw35%
Real Madrid or draw86%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:2
From xG 0.91 : 2.15, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
0:2
11%
1:1
10%
0:3
8%
1:3
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Madrid: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- Real Madrid: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Real Madrid: 10 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Real Madrid: 11 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Roma: 3 goals (83', 85', 90')
Lineups
Valencia 5-3-2 · Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
Valencia
- 1 S. Dimitrievski
- 24 P. Maffeo Becerra
- 18 J. García Vayá
- 5 C. Tárrega Requeni
- 12 J. de Haas
- 14 J. Gayá Peña
- 8 J. Guerra Moreno
- 2 G. Rodríguez
- 33 Aaron Mayol
- 6 U. Sadiq Mesbah
- 7 A. Danjuma
Real Madrid
- 1 T. Courtois
- 8 F. Valverde Dipetta
- 16 I. Konaté
- 4 D. Huijsen
- 17 M. Cucurella
- 20 B. Silva
- 14 A. Tchouaméni
- 15 A. Guler
- 5 J. Bellingham
- 25 Y. Diomande
- 10 K. Mbappé
Substitutes
- 22 A. Martinez
- 3 J. Arias Copete
- 23 F. Ugrinic
- 21 J. Vazquez Alcalde
- 4 M. Diakhaby
- 11 L. Rioja González
- 9 H. Duro
- 19 D. Raba Antolí
- 10 H. Elliot
- 37 A. Blazquez Labraca
- 25 K. van Oevelen
- 15 A. Dieng
- 19 C. Espí Escrihuela
- 18 A. Carreras
- 6 E. Camavinga
- 21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
- 3 É. Gabriel Militão
- 22 A. Rüdiger
- 13 A. Lunin
- 12 T. Alexander-Arnold
- 9 E. Moreira de Sousa
- 24 D. Dumfries
- 26 S. Mestre Sánchez
- 27 T. Pitarch Pinar
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →