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La Liga11/08/2026, 01:00 PM

Elche – Real Betis0 : 2

Why the model thinks so

Elche
1.43
Total xG
2.92
Real Betis
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorElcheReal Betis
High-scoring league (3 goals/match)+0.45+0.45
Attack strength (1.29x league average)+0.33
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 4, 13 places gap)−0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)−0.19
Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean−0.17
Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)+0.17
Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean+0.16
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches−0.15
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 17, 13 places gap)+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)−0.07
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Possession: Elche recorded 51% possession per match in the last 5 matches, Real Betis 48%
  • Shots: Real Betis averaged 5.4 shots on target per match in the last 5 matches, Elche 4.2 per match

Risks

  • Table: Real Betis is 4th in the league with 23 points from 11 matches, Elche 17th with 10 points
  • Head-to-head: Real Betis won 2 of the 3 meetings since 2025, with 1 draw and no losses

All probabilities

Result
Elche35%
Draw28%
Real Betis38%
Double chance
Elche or draw62%
Real Betis or draw65%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%

xG score

1:1
From xG 1.43 : 1.49, rounded up only from .913% probability

Other likely scores

1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Real Betis: 36% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 22)
  2. Real Betis with Isco starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 1.3 (11/9 games, last 30)
  3. Elche: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)

Lineups

Elche 4-3-3 · Real Betis 4-2-3-1

Elche
  • 1 M. Dituro
  • 22 Rubén Sáez
  • 5 F. Redondo Solari
  • 23 V. Chust García
  • 3 R. Revivo
  • 16 M. Carvalho Neto
  • 47 J. Morcillo Rodrigalvarez
  • 29 A. Houary Jeddoub
  • 21 L. Cepeda
  • 14 F. Niño Rodriguez
  • 11 G. Karabinaite
Real Betis
  • 1 Á. Vallés Rosa
  • 2 H. Bellerín Moruno
  • 5 M. Bartra Aregall
  • 4 Natan
  • 11 F. García Torres
  • 8 P. Fornals Malla
  • 21 M. Roca Junqué
  • 7 A. dos Santos
  • 22 F. Alarcón Suárez
  • 10 A. Ezzalzouli
  • 19 T. Parrott
Substitutes
  • 17 J. Fernández Pomares
  • 19 G. Diangana
  • 4 B. Diaby
  • 13 A. Iturbe Encabo
  • 6 P. Bigas Rigo
  • 26 M. Barzic Gutiérrez
  • 10 F. Buonanotte
  • 2 A. Sangaré Traoré
  • 20 J. Morente Oliva
  • 9 E. Ponce Martínez
  • 15 K. Lomónaco
  • 24 A. Osorio
  • 30 Á. Padilla
  • 14 I. Losada Aragunde
  • 13 D. Conde Alcolado
  • 25 D. Ceballos Fernández
  • 16 D. Gómez
  • 3 D. Llorente Ríos
  • 12 ?. Ortiz Monterrey
  • 23 H. Firpo Adames
  • 18 N. Deossa Suárez
  • 17 R. Riquelme Reche
  • 24 A. Ruibal García
  • 27 J. Morante Antúnez
  • 15 Á. Fidalgo Fernández
  • 31 M. González Pallarés

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