Match report →
Celta de Vigo – Levante0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Celta de Vigo
1.68
Total xG
2.61
Levante
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Celta de Vigo | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.57 | |
| Attack weakness (0.55x league average) | −0.43 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 12, 6 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 18, 6 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Hugo Álvarez on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ferran Jutglà on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Iván Romero on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 19% of goal output missing (only 93% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Celta de Vigo score 1.5 goals per game at home in the league, Levante concede 1.5 per game away
- Standings: Celta de Vigo are 12th in the league with 12 points, Levante are 18th with 10 points
Risks
- Rest days: Celta de Vigo with 3 days since their last match
- Attack: Levante scored 1.6 goals per game in their last 5 matches, Celta de Vigo scored 1.0 per game
All probabilities
Result
Celta de Vigo53%
Draw27%
Levante19%
Double chance
Celta de Vigo or draw81%
Levante or draw47%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.68 : 0.93, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
5%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Levante: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Levante: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sevilla: 2 goals (90+2', 90+10')
- Javi Rodríguez: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Levante with Roger Brugué starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (10/16 games, last 30)
Lineups
Celta de Vigo 3-4-3 · Levante 4-2-3-1
Celta de Vigo
- 13 I. Radu
- 20 J. Rodríguez Galiano
- 21 S. Cáceres Ramos
- 3 M. Alonso Mendoza
- 17 J. Rueda García
- 28 A. Antañón Vieites
- 6 Ilaix Moriba
- 5 S. Carreira Vilariño
- 10 I. Aspas Juncal
- 11 P. Durán Fernández
- 24 C. Driouech
Levante
- 13 M. Ryan
- 22 J. Toljan
- 2 A. Mandi
- 3 I. Ndukwe
- 29 N. Pérez Gómez
- 8 J. Olasagasti Imizcoz
- 5 H. Sotelo
- 7 R. Brugué Ayguadé
- 6 D. Requena Sánchez
- 24 T. Fernández
- 21 K. Etta Eyong
Substitutes
- 4 A. Faye
- 14 A. Febas Pérez
- 19 W. Swedberg
- 9 F. Jutlgà Blanc
- 18 Y. Lago Amil
- 23 H. Álvarez Antúnez
- 25 I. Villar Martínez
- 22 J. Galán Gil
- 1 A. Bayındır
- 16 H. Sotos
- 30 H. Garcia Hoz
- 9 I. Romero de Ávila Araque
- 1 P. Cuñat Campos
- 17 V. García Raja
- 4 A. De la Fuente Barquilla
- 20 O. Rey Erenas
- 14 J. Cabello Trujillo
- 27 F. Cortés Gracia
- 10 P. Ratkov
- 35 H. Alhassan Nakoha
- 18 E. Bardeli
- 33 M. Santos
- 11 Y. Musuayi
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