Ligue 1
Olympique Marseille - Auxerre
03/13/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.0
1.3
1:1
12%2:1
9%2:0
7%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Olympique Marseille
Auxerre
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
46%
Draw
27%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
54%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- Olympique Marseille is mathematically favored for a home win with a 46% probability
- Marseille scores an average of 2.13 goals at home, while Auxerre concedes 1.67 goals away
- Stade VĂ©lodrome is a venue for high-scoring matches with an average of 3.6 goals per game and an 80% Over 2.5 rate
Risk Factors
- Lassine Sinayoko (Auxerre) is missing, only 60% of the usual goal threat is available
- Olympique Marseille's goal production has recently declined (currently 1.2 goals, season average 1.9 goals)
- Auxerre shows a positive offensive form trend and is currently scoring more frequently (1.7 goals) than their season average (0.9 goals)
Overview
Olympique Marseille (3rd place, 46 points) host Auxerre (16th place, 19 points) at Stade VĂ©lodrome
Ligue 1 match on March 13, 2026, 8:45 PM
Marseille are fighting for international spots, while Auxerre are battling against relegation
Form
Olympique Marseille's form across all competitions is LDLWW
This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses from the last 5 games
Marseille recently won 1:0 away against Toulouse and 3:2 at home against Olympique Lyonnais
Auxerre's form across all competitions is DWLDD
This corresponds to 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches
Auxerre recently drew 0:0 against Strasbourg and 2:2 away against Lorient
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Olympique Marseille scores an average of 2.08 goals and concedes 1.32 goals per game this season
At home, Marseille scores an average of 2.13 goals and concedes 1 goal
Auxerre scores an average of 0.76 goals and concedes 1.4 goals per game
Away from home, the average is 0.75 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded
The Stade VĂ©lodrome has seen an average of 3.6 goals per match in the last 5 games
Both teams scored in 60% of the games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80%
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches over the past two years, Olympique Marseille won 3 times and Auxerre won 2 times
The goal difference is 6:7 in favor of Auxerre
The last encounter on November 1, 2025, ended with a 1:0 victory for Auxerre
Key Players
For Olympique Marseille, Mason Greenwood (15 season goals, 4 assists), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (8 season goals, 5 assists), and Igor PaixĂŁo (5 season goals, 4 assists) are the top offensive players
Amine Gouiri (5 goals/2 assists) and Emerson (0 goals/3 assists) are not nominated
For Auxerre, Danny Namaso (2 season goals, 2 assists), Kévin Danois (2 season goals, 1 assist), and Josué Casimir (1 season goal, 0 assists) are the players with the most goal involvements
Goalkeepers
GerĂłnimo Rulli of Olympique Marseille has recorded 7 clean sheets this season
Donovan LĂ©on of Auxerre has recorded 6 clean sheets this season
Influences
Olympique Marseille shows a strong home performance at Stade VĂ©lodrome, with an average of 2.13 goals scored and only 1 goal conceded per home game
The stadium is a guarantee for high-scoring matches with an average of 3.6 goals per game, 60% both teams scoring, and 80% over 2.5 goals
The surface is grass