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Super League

St. Gallen - Zürich

07/26/2026, 02:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
St. Gallen
2.5
Total xG
3.5
Zürich
1.0
Most Likely Scores

2:0

10%

2:1

9%

1:1

9%

3:0

8%

3:1

8%
What influences the xG?
SGZÜR

St. Gallen

Attack strength (2.55x league average)
+2.33
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 0.7 league avg)
+0.63
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap)
+0.10
Alessandro Vogt not in squad (15 goals, 3 assists)
Carlo Boukhalfa on the bench (12 goals, 3 assists)
27% of goal output missing (only 82% available)

Zürich

Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.81
Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
+0.22
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap)
-0.09
Cheveyo Tsawa not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Ivan Cavaleiro not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Juan José Perea not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Nelson Palacio not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Alexander Hack on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 91% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    St. Gallen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Zürich with Alexander Hack: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    St. Gallen: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    St. Gallen: 94% of xG value comes in the second half (last 6 games with xG data)

  • 5
    St. Gallen with Mihailo Stevanovic: 2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

69%

Draw

19%

Away Win

12%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

68%

Under 2.5

32%

Over 3.5

46%

Under 3.5

54%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

88%

Away or Draw

31%

No Draw

81%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical home win probability of 69% backed by St. Gallen's strong home record (1.94 goals per game)
  • St. Gallen averaged 6.2 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • Zürich's defensive weakness away from home, conceding an average of 2.25 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • St. Gallen with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • St. Gallen's goal production has stalled recently (1.6) compared to their season average (2.0)
  • Absence of key offensive players such as Alessandro Vogt (15 goals) and Carlo Boukhalfa (12 goals)
Overview

St. Gallen host Zürich at Kybunpark

Super League match on July 26, 2026, 4:30 PM

Home team favored with 69% win probability according to mathematical model

Form

St. Gallen form: LWWDW with 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss

Zürich form: LDWLL with 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Goal production of both teams stalled recently

Statistics

St. Gallen averages 1.89 goals scored and 1.24 goals conceded

Zürich averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.89 goals conceded

St. Gallen scores an average of 1.94 goals at home

Zürich concedes an average of 2.25 goals away from home

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches

3 wins for St. Gallen, 2 wins for Zürich

Goal difference balanced at 9:9

Last match ended 2-1 for St. Gallen

Key Players

Lukas Görtler: 9 goals, 8 assists, rating 7.32

Aliou Baldé: 11 goals, rating 6.88

Chima Okoroji: 3 goals, 3 assists, rating 6.92

Philippe Paulin Keny: 13 goals, 4 assists, rating 7.02

Ilan Sauter: 2 goals, rating 6.74

Umeh Emmanuel: 2 goals, 4 assists, rating 6.57

Not selected: Alessandro Vogt (15 goals, 3 assists), Carlo Boukhalfa (12 goals, 3 assists)

Not selected: Cheveyo Tsawa (2 goals, 2 assists), Ivan Cavaleiro (3 goals, 1 assist), Juan José Perea (2 goals), Nelson Palacio (2 assists), Alexander Hack (1 goal, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Lawrence Ati Zigi: 35 games, 8 clean sheets

Heinz Lindner is in goal for the opponent

Influences

Grass surface at Kybunpark

Avg. 3.2 goals per game in venue history

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 home matches

St. Gallen's home advantage supported by statistics

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