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St. Gallen – Zürich2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
St. Gallen
2.50
Total xG
3.49
Zürich
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | St. Gallen | Zürich |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.55x league average) | +2.33 | |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.81 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 0.7 league avg) | +0.63 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.22 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Alessandro Vogt not in squad (15 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Carlo Boukhalfa on the bench (12 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Cheveyo Tsawa not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ivan Cavaleiro not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Juan José Perea not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Nelson Palacio not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alexander Hack on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 91% available) |
Key factors
- Mathematical home win probability of 69% backed by St. Gallen's strong home record (1.94 goals per game)
- St. Gallen averaged 6.2 shots on target per game in recent matches
- Zürich's defensive weakness away from home, conceding an average of 2.25 goals per away game
Risks
- St. Gallen with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- St. Gallen's goal production has stalled recently (1.6) compared to their season average (2.0)
- Absence of key offensive players such as Alessandro Vogt (15 goals) and Carlo Boukhalfa (12 goals)
All probabilities
Result
St. Gallen69%
Draw19%
Zürich12%
Double chance
St. Gallen or draw88%
Zürich or draw31%
No draw81%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
1:1
9%
3:0
8%
3:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Gallen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- Zürich with Alexander Hack: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- St. Gallen: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- St. Gallen: 94% of xG value comes in the second half (last 6 games with xG data)
- St. Gallen with Mihailo Stevanovic: 2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
St. Gallen 3-5-2 · Zürich 4-2-3-1
St. Gallen
- 1 L. Ati-Zigi
- 26 T. Gaal
- 4 J. Stanic
- 36 C. Okoroji
- 28 H. Vandermersch
- 16 L. Görtler
- 10 L. Daschner
- 20 L. Frokaj
- 64 M. Stevanovic
- 7 C. Witzig
- 14 A. Balde
Zürich
- 13 H. Lindner
- 3 S. Hodža
- 2 L. Kamberi
- 27 I. Sauter
- 43 N. Volken
- 21 L. Schödler
- 23 V. Berisha
- 7 B. Krasniqi
- 8 L. Comenencia
- 11 U. Emmanuel
- 19 P. Keny
Substitutes
- 11 C. Boukhalfa
- 31 D. Besio
- 35 B. Dumrath
- 23 B. Fazliji
- 63 C. Konietzke
- 47 E. Owusu
- 9 A. Hunziker
- 74 J. Ruiz
- 68 M. Heydari
- 17 K. Spadanuda
- 38 M. Reichmuth
- 18 M. Bangoura
- 49 D. Ramić
- 44 S. Walker
- 14 N. Di Giusto
- 34 C. Fiorini
- 42 A. Hack
- 60 T. Pinthus-Duah
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