Match report →
Servette – Basel0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Servette
2.59
Total xG
3.59
Basel
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Servette | Basel |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +1.17 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.30 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.30 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.19 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| Junior Kadile not in squad (6 goals, 10 assists) | ||
| Samuel Mraz on the bench (10 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| David Douline on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Thomas Lopes not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Lamine Fomba on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 24% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Bénie Traoré not in squad (9 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Dominik Schmid not in squad (3 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Julien Duranville not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Nicolas Vouilloz on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Andrej Bacanin on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Léo Leroy on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Giacomo Koloto not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Clear advantage according to mathematical analysis: The model calculates a 71% home win probability and 2.59 expected goals for Servette
- Strong offensive tactics: Servette averaged 7.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- Diverging form trends: Servette are scoring more recently (2.8 goals) compared to their season average (1.8), while Basel's attack has stalled (0.8 recently)
Risks
- Defensive weakness of the visitors: Basel conceded an average of 2.06 goals per away game this season
- Historical record favors Basel: The visitors managed to win 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Servette
All probabilities
Result
Servette71%
Draw18%
Basel11%
Double chance
Servette or draw89%
Basel or draw29%
No draw82%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
3:0
8%
3:1
8%
4:0
5%
4:1
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Servette: first goal in 8 of 8 games (100%)
- Basel with Julien Duranville: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Basel: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Servette: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Servette with Houboulang Mendes: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 4 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Servette 4-4-1-1 · Basel 4-2-3-1
Servette
- 78 L. Besson
- 17 H. Mendes
- 4 S. Rouiller
- 15 M. Burch
- 18 B. Mazikou
- 22 M. Lambourde
- 6 P. Naressi Machado
- 8 T. Cognat
- 14 L. Njoh
- 9 M. Stevanović
- 97 F. Aye
Basel
- 13 M. Salvi
- 6 K. Tsunemoto
- 24 F. Daniliuc
- 55 A. Victory Maduabuchukwu
- 29 M. Cisse
- 5 A. Silu
- 8 L. Malachowski Thorell
- 18 A. Sow
- 10 X. Shaqiri
- 7 P. Otele
- 9 Ž. Celar
Substitutes
- 77 T. Ouattara
- 28 D. Douline
- 11 L. Fomba
- 34 T. Allix
- 90 S. Mráz
- 23 Q. Maceiras
- 35 A. Vincent
- 44 L.Rieder
- 41 T.Nunez
- 22 L. Leroy
- 21 I. Salah
- 3 N. Vouilloz
- 14 A. Bačanin
- 23 A. Ajeti
- 4 B. Omeragic
- 11 K. Olaigbe
- 25 C. Louis
- 49 R. Widmer D’Autilia
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