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Super League

Servette - Basel

07/25/2026, 04:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Servette
2.6
Total xG
3.6
Basel
1.0
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:0

8%

3:1

8%

4:0

5%

4:1

5%
What influences the xG?
SERBAS

Servette

Attack strength (1.21x league average)
+1.17
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.30
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.30
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.06
Junior Kadile not in squad (6 goals, 10 assists)
Samuel Mraz on the bench (10 goals, 2 assists)
David Douline on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
Thomas Lopes not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Lamine Fomba on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
24% of goal output missing (only 83% available)

Basel

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.19
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.13
Bénie Traoré not in squad (9 goals, 3 assists)
Dominik Schmid not in squad (3 goals, 5 assists)
Julien Duranville not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Nicolas Vouilloz on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Andrej Bacanin on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Léo Leroy on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Giacomo Koloto not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Servette: first goal in 8 of 8 games (100%)

  • 2
    Basel with Julien Duranville: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Basel: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Servette: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Servette with Houboulang Mendes: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 4 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

71%

Draw

18%

Away Win

11%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

48%

Under 3.5

52%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

89%

Away or Draw

29%

No Draw

82%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Clear advantage according to mathematical analysis: The model calculates a 71% home win probability and 2.59 expected goals for Servette
  • Strong offensive tactics: Servette averaged 7.2 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Diverging form trends: Servette are scoring more recently (2.8 goals) compared to their season average (1.8), while Basel's attack has stalled (0.8 recently)
Risk Factors
  • Defensive weakness of the visitors: Basel conceded an average of 2.06 goals per away game this season
  • Historical record favors Basel: The visitors managed to win 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Servette
Overview

Servette host Basel at the Stade de Genève

Super League match on July 25, 2026, 6:00 PM

Both teams start the season level on points in the standings

The hosts enter this match as clear favorites according to mathematical predictions

Form

Servette are in strong form with WWDWW in recent matches

The hosts recorded 4 wins and 1 draw from their last five games

Basel travel with a form of LWLLL, suffering 4 losses in their last five matches

Form key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Servette scored an average of 1.87 goals and conceded 1.66 goals per game this season

Basel averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded per match

Basel are particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.06 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Basel won 3 times, with 1 draw and 1 win for Servette

The last meeting ended in a 3-1 victory for Basel on March 15, 2026

Servette scored 5 goals while Basel scored 13 goals across these direct duels

Key Players

Miroslav Stevanovic shines in Servette's midfield with 14 goals and 7 assists, holding a 7.32 rating

Florian Ayé contributes 11 goals and 2 assists in the hosts' attack

Lilian Njoh strengthens Servette's defense with 1 goal, 9 assists, and a 7.00 rating

Xherdan Shaqiri leads Basel's midfield with 11 goals and 10 assists, holding a 7.31 rating

Philip Otele scored 5 goals and provided 4 assists in Basel's attack

Metinho stabilizes the visitors' midfield with 3 goals and a 7.04 rating

Goalkeepers

L. Besson starts in goal for Servette as J. Frick is sidelined with a back injury

Mirko Salvi guards the goal for Basel, with 5 appearances and a 6.58 rating this season

Both teams kept 9 clean sheets during the season

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Stade de Genève

Matches at this venue historically average 4.2 goals per game

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 80% of matches at the Stade de Genève

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