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Young Boys – Sion4 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Young Boys
2.40
Total xG
3.81
Sion
1.40
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Young Boys | Sion |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (3.47x league average) | +2.33 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.50 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.29 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2 season average) | +0.29 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Dominik Pech on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Yan Valery not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| Rilind Nivokazi on the bench (13 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Kreshnik Hajrizi not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 82% available) |
Key factors
- Tactical threat: Young Boys averaged 7.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Rising offensive trend: Young Boys scored 3.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 2.0
- Sharp visitors: Sion averaged 2.2 goals recently which is higher than their season average of 1.8
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Sion with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Missing impact: Rilind Nivokazi is not in the lineup, leaving Sion with only 83% of their usual goal threat
- Defensive weakness: Young Boys conceded an average of 1.82 goals per game last season
All probabilities
Result
Young Boys59%
Draw21%
Sion20%
Double chance
Young Boys or draw80%
Sion or draw41%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.573%
Under 2.527%
Over 3.553%
Under 3.547%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
1:2
5%
3:0
5%
4:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sion: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Young Boys with Gregory Wüthrich: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 5.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Young Boys: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Young Boys: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Young Boys: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Young Boys 4-4-1-1 · Sion 4-4-1-1
Young Boys
- 18 J. Mall
- 27 L. Blum
- 30 S. Lauper
- 15 C. Zesiger
- 33 S. Bukinac
- 7 A. Virginius
- 8 A. Gigovic
- 6 E. Fernandes
- 11 J. Monteiro
- 10 A. Antonio Sanches
- 99 S. Essende
Sion
- 1 A. Racioppi
- 14 N. Lavanchy
- 5 N. Sow
- 17 J. Kronig
- 20 N. Hefti
- 21 L. Chipperfield
- 88 A. Kabacalman
- 8 B. Costa Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 7 I. Chouaref
- 29 T. Berdayes
- 9 J. Lukembila
Substitutes
- 29 K. Imeri
- 22 I. Schmidt
- 13 D. Pech
- 23 L. Benito
- 40 D. Marzino
- 3 J. Hadjam
- 39 D. Males
- 25 F. Tsimba
- 5 G. Wüthrich
- 77 D. Rrudhani
- 6 M. Cipriano
- 22 A. Llukes
- 12 F. Ruberto
- 33 R. Nivokazi
- 13 W. Boteli
- 37 F. Sylla
- 19 F. Surdez
- 38 R. Kessler
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