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Lausanne Sport – Grasshopper1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Lausanne Sport
1.75
Total xG
2.98
Grasshopper
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lausanne Sport | Grasshopper |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Alban Ajdini on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jonathan Asp Jensen not in squad (8 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Dirk Abels not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Lovro Zvonarek not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 55% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical home advantage: The model calculates a home win probability of 48% and expects 1.75 goals for Lausanne Sport
- Lausanne Sport averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches, demonstrating offensive strength
- Grasshopper is currently scoring more frequently (1.6 goals on average) than their season average (1.3) and arrives with two consecutive wins
Risks
- Jonathan Asp Jensen, Dirk Abels, and Lovro Zvonarek are missing, leaving only 56% of the usual starting XI strength available
- Grasshopper concedes an average of 2.35 goals per away match
- Lausanne Sport's goal production is currently stalling at an average of 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.5
All probabilities
Result
Lausanne Sport48%
Draw26%
Grasshopper25%
Double chance
Lausanne Sport or draw75%
Grasshopper or draw52%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lausanne Sport: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Lausanne Sport with Gaoussou Diakité: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Grasshopper with Luka Mikulić: 1 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Grasshopper: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Lausanne Sport 4-2-3-1 · Grasshopper 4-3-3
Lausanne Sport
- 90 M. Mastil
- 2 B. Soppy
- 14 K. Mouanga
- 71 A. Sow
- 18 M. Poaty
- 10 O. Custodio Da Costa
- 8 J. Roche
- 51 I. Mendes
- 27 B. Lekweiry
- 11 N. Butler-Oyedeji
- 78 O. Janneh Susso
Grasshopper
- 71 J. Hammel
- 28 S. Stroscio
- 73 D. Paloschi
- 4 L. Mikulić
- 57 N. Rissi
- 5 H. Imourane
- 8 T. Meyer
- 6 A. Abrashi
- 10 Ó. Clemente Mues
- 9 N. Muci
- 17 S. Krasniqi
Substitutes
- 1 T. Castella
- 91 F. Mollet
- 7 A. Ajdini
- 17 S. Traore
- 23 K. De La Fuente
- 6 T. Bergvall
- 80 S. Koné
- 5 D. Ngonzo
- 49 I. Despotovic
- 22 P. Cretì
- 15 A. Diaby
- 7 L. Plange
- 23 S. Marques
- 60 S. Bengondo
- 55 D.Papic
- 56 D. Sahin
- 1 M. Hübel
- 14 A. Conateh
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