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Super League

Luzern - Thun

07/25/2026, 06:30 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Luzern
1.4
Total xG
2.9
Thun
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
LUZTHU

Luzern

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap)
-0.09
Andrej Vasovic not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
Adrian Bajrami not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Bung Meng Freimann not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)

Thun

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.28
Declining form (1.2 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.28
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Elmin Rastoder not in squad (15 goals, 6 assists)
Kastriot Imeri not in squad (6 goals, 8 assists)
Valmir Matoshi on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists)
Michael Heule on the bench (2 goals, 7 assists)
Fabio Fehr on the bench (2 goals, 7 assists)
Brighton Labeau on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Marco Bürki not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Justin Roth on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
94% of goal output missing (only 8% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Luzern: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Luzern: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Thun: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Thun with Furkan Dursun: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 5
    Luzern: 79% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

28%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Form contrast: Luzern is undefeated in 5 matches (WWDWW), whereas Thun is winless in their last 5 games
  • Offensive drive: Luzern averaged 6.4 shots on target per game in recent matches with 53.8% possession
  • Historical dominance: Thun won all 3 recent head-to-head matches against Luzern, including a 2:1 win in February 2026
Risk Factors
  • Severe squad crisis for Thun: Missing Elmin Rastoder (15 goals) and Kastriot Imeri (6 goals), only 9% of typical lineup strength is available
  • Fatigue factor for Thun: The visitors had only 4 days of rest since their last match, compared to Luzern's 70 days
  • Defensive vulnerability: Luzern conceded an average of 1.81 goals at home last season, while Thun conceded 1.35 away
Overview

Luzern host Thun at the swissporarena

Super League match on July 25, 2026, 8:30 PM

The mathematical analysis predicts a tight game with an away win probability of 39%

Form

Luzern show strong form with the record WWDWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Thun are winless in their last five matches with the record LLLDD

Luzern secured four wins and one draw recently

Thun registered three losses and two draws

Statistics

Luzern scored an average of 2.0 goals per game and conceded 1.74 last season

Thun averaged 2.11 goals scored per game and 1.37 conceded

In home games, Luzern scored 2.0 goals on average but conceded 1.81

Thun scored 2.06 goals on average in away matches while conceding 1.35

Head-to-Head

Thun dominated the last three head-to-head matches with three wins

The last encounter on February 28, 2026, ended in a 2:1 win for Thun

In total, Thun scored eight goals in these matches while Luzern scored three

Key Players

Matteo Di Giusto contributed 12 goals and 12 assists in 38 appearances

Oscar Kabwit scored 11 goals and provided 5 assists in 17 seasonal appearances

Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira registered 7 goals and 3 assists in 15 games

Lucien Dähler scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists in 19 games

Jan Bamert recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in 34 appearances

Niklas Steffen made 36 appearances in goal and provided one assist

Goalkeepers

Niklas Steffen played 36 games in goal for Thun last season, keeping 6 clean sheets

Simon Simoni played once in goal for Luzern at home last season

Luzern recorded 7 clean sheets in total, while Thun kept 6

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at the swissporarena

In the last 5 home games, there was an average of 3.6 goals scored per match

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 home matches

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