Match report →
Luzern – Thun1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Luzern
1.37
Total xG
2.88
Thun
1.52
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Luzern | Thun |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.79 | +0.79 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.28 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Andrej Vasovic not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Adrian Bajrami not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Bung Meng Freimann not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Elmin Rastoder not in squad (15 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Kastriot Imeri not in squad (6 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Valmir Matoshi on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Michael Heule on the bench (2 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Fabio Fehr on the bench (2 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Brighton Labeau on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Marco Bürki not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Justin Roth on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 94% of goal output missing (only 8% available) |
Key factors
- Form contrast: Luzern is undefeated in 5 matches (WWDWW), whereas Thun is winless in their last 5 games
- Offensive drive: Luzern averaged 6.4 shots on target per game in recent matches with 53.8% possession
- Historical dominance: Thun won all 3 recent head-to-head matches against Luzern, including a 2:1 win in February 2026
Risks
- Severe squad crisis for Thun: Missing Elmin Rastoder (15 goals) and Kastriot Imeri (6 goals), only 9% of typical lineup strength is available
- Fatigue factor for Thun: The visitors had only 4 days of rest since their last match, compared to Luzern's 70 days
- Defensive vulnerability: Luzern conceded an average of 1.81 goals at home last season, while Thun conceded 1.35 away
All probabilities
Result
Luzern33%
Draw28%
Thun39%
Double chance
Luzern or draw61%
Thun or draw67%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Luzern: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Luzern: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- Thun: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Thun with Furkan Dursun: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Luzern: 79% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
Lineups
Luzern 4-4-2 · Thun 4-2-2-2
Luzern
- 1 S. Simoni
- 20 P. Dorn
- 5 S. Knežević
- 21 L. Lüthi
- 22 R. Fernandes
- 10 L. Silva Ferreira
- 24 T. Owusu
- 6 L. Bertone
- 11 M. Di Giusto
- 16 O. Kabwit tshikomb
- 27 V. Villiger
Thun
- 1 N. Steffen
- 37 L. Dähler
- 5 N. Bürgy
- 19 J. Bamert
- 17 A. Balaruban
- 13 N. Zoukit
- 8 F. Saiz Pennarossa
- 30 N. Maier
- 21 D. Derbaci
- 33 M. Gutbub
- 11 L. Stewart
Substitutes
- 80 Mio Zimmermann
- 17 S. Wyss
- 14 A. Cigaņiks
- 3 J. Löfgren
- 28 R. Dantas Fernandes
- 71 S. Meyer
- 7 A. Oehlers
- 13 B. Freimann
- 63 R. Radtke
- 47 F. Fehr
- 70 N. Reichmuth
- 27 M. Heule
- 96 B. Labeau Melchior
- 78 V. Matoshi
- 16 J. Roth
- 25 T. Spycher
- 54 L. Passavant
- 80 S. Lengen
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