Match report →
Thun – Young Boys0 : 6
Why the model thinks so
Thun
1.97
Total xG
4.53
Young Boys
2.56
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Thun | Young Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.5x league average) | +1.62 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.63 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match) | +0.45 | |
| Rising form (3.6 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.45 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Valmir Matoshi on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Michael Heule on the bench (2 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Fabio Fehr on the bench (2 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Marco Bürki not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 62% of goal output missing (only 40% available) | ||
| Alan Virginius not in squad (6 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Sandro Lauper on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Dominik Pech on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Yan Valery not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 30% of goal output missing (only 74% available) |
Key factors
- Only 40% of Thun's goal danger is available due to the absence of Valmir Matoshi, Michael Heule, Fabio Fehr, and Marco Bürki
- Young Boys averaged 7.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Thun's 4.2
- Young Boys show a positive trend, averaging 3.6 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 2.1
Risks
- Young Boys conceded an average of 2.44 goals per away game this season
- Young Boys are missing Alan Virginius, leaving only 75% of their typical lineup strength active
- Thun's defensive choices are limited due to the injuries of Michael Heule and Marco Bürki
All probabilities
Result
Thun29%
Draw20%
Young Boys51%
Double chance
Thun or draw49%
Young Boys or draw71%
No draw80%
Goals
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.583%
Under 2.517%
Over 3.566%
Under 3.534%
Both teams score
Yes80%
No20%
Most likely scores
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
1:3
6%
2:3
6%
2:1
5%
0:6
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Thun with Furkan Dursun: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Young Boys: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Young Boys with Jaouen Hadjam: 3.8 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Young Boys: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Young Boys: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Thun 4-4-2 · Young Boys 4-2-3-1
Thun
- 1 N. Steffen
- 37 L. Dähler
- 5 N. Bürgy
- 19 J. Bamert
- 17 A. Balaruban
- 70 N. Reichmuth
- 8 F. Saiz Pennarossa
- 16 J. Roth
- 21 D. Derbaci
- 96 B. Labeau Melchior
- 11 L. Stewart
Young Boys
- 1 M. Keller
- 27 L. Blum
- 5 G. Wüthrich
- 15 C. Zesiger
- 3 J. Hadjam
- 6 E. Fernandes
- 8 A. Gigovic
- 10 A. Antonio Sanches
- 29 K. Imeri
- 11 J. Monteiro
- 99 S. Essende
Substitutes
- 47 F. Fehr
- 27 M. Heule
- 78 V. Matoshi
- 33 M. Gutbub
- 25 T. Spycher
- 30 N. Maier
- 9 F. Dursun
- 13 N. Zoukit
- 54 L. Passavant
- 22 I. Schmidt
- 18 J. Mall
- 13 D. Pech
- 30 S. Lauper
- 23 L. Benito
- 39 D. Males
- 25 F. Tsimba
- 33 S. Bukinac
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