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Super League

Thun - Young Boys

08/01/2026, 06:30 PM

0 : 6
Expected Goals
Thun
2.0
Total xG
4.5
Young Boys
2.6
Most Likely Scores

1:2

7%

2:2

7%

1:3

6%

2:3

6%

2:1

5%
What influences the xG?
THUYB

Thun

Attack strength (1.22x league average)
+0.63
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.04
Valmir Matoshi on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists)
Michael Heule on the bench (2 goals, 7 assists)
Fabio Fehr on the bench (2 goals, 7 assists)
Marco BĆ¼rki not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
62% of goal output missing (only 40% available)

Young Boys

Attack strength (1.5x league average)
+1.62
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match)
+0.45
Rising form (3.6 vs 2.1 season average)
+0.45
Alan Virginius not in squad (6 goals, 9 assists)
Sandro Lauper on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Dominik Pech on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Yan Valery not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
30% of goal output missing (only 74% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.38
+0.38
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Thun with Furkan Dursun: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 2
    Young Boys: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Young Boys with Jaouen Hadjam: 3.8 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Young Boys: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Young Boys: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

20%

Away Win

51%

Goals

Over 1.5

95%

Under 1.5

5%

Over 2.5

83%

Under 2.5

17%

Over 3.5

66%

Under 3.5

34%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

49%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

80%

No

20%

Key Factors
  • Only 40% of Thun's goal danger is available due to the absence of Valmir Matoshi, Michael Heule, Fabio Fehr, and Marco BĆ¼rki
  • Young Boys averaged 7.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Thun's 4.2
  • Young Boys show a positive trend, averaging 3.6 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 2.1
Risk Factors
  • Young Boys conceded an average of 2.44 goals per away game this season
  • Young Boys are missing Alan Virginius, leaving only 75% of their typical lineup strength active
  • Thun's defensive choices are limited due to the injuries of Michael Heule and Marco BĆ¼rki
Overview

Thun (2nd place, 3 points) host Young Boys (1st place, 3 points) at the Stockhorn Arena

Super League match on August 1, 2026, 8:30 PM

A clash between two top-placed teams after the opening matchday

Form

Thun's form is LDDWL with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their summary

Young Boys show a form of LWWDW with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Young Boys won their last match, while Thun comes off a defeat

Statistics

Thun scored 80 goals (avg 2.11) and conceded 52 (avg 1.37) in 38 season games

Young Boys also scored 80 goals (avg 2.11) but conceded 69 (avg 1.82)

Young Boys conceded an average of 2.44 goals per away game this season

Head-to-Head

The direct head-to-head record over 4 matches is balanced with 2 wins for each team

The last meeting on May 14, 2026 ended in a spectacular 8:3 away win for Young Boys

A total of 25 goals have been scored in these 4 direct encounters

Key Players

Nils Reichmuth scored 4 goals and provided 3 assists in 32 appearances with a 6.86 rating

Alvyn Sanches recorded 10 goals and 6 assists in 28 matches

Samuel Essende scored 6 goals in his last 5 games with a 7.54 rating

Goalkeepers

Thun's Niklas Steffen has 6 clean sheets this season in 36 appearances

Young Boys' Marvin Keller recorded 8 clean sheets this season in 38 matches

Influences

The match is played on artificial turf at the Stockhorn Arena

Thun has a home surface record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses on artificial turf

Venue stats show an average of 4.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 matches

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