Match report →
Zürich – Servette2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Zürich
0.96
Total xG
2.66
Servette
1.70
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Zürich | Servette |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.99 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.67 | +0.67 |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Cheveyo Tsawa not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ivan Cavaleiro not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Juan José Perea on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Nelson Palacio not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alexander Hack on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 93% available) | ||
| Junior Kadile not in squad (6 goals, 10 assists) | ||
| Samuel Mraz on the bench (10 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| David Douline on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Thomas Lopes not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Houboulang Mendes on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Lamine Fomba on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 19% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: Servette averaged 5.6 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Zürich's 3.8
- Historical advantage: Servette won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches, backed by a 53% away win probability from the model
- Defensive weakness meets offensive strength: Zürich conceded an average of 1.89 goals per game last season, while Servette averaged 1.87 goals scored
Risks
- Servette must play without key contributors like Junior Kadile (6 goals, 10 assists) and Samuel Mraz (10 goals, 2 assists)
- Zürich's offensive output is currently struggling, with only 1.0 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 1.3
All probabilities
Result
Zürich20%
Draw27%
Servette53%
Double chance
Zürich or draw47%
Servette or draw80%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
0:2
10%
1:2
10%
0:3
6%
1:3
5%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Servette: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- Zürich with Alexander Hack: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Servette: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Zürich: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Servette with Jérémy Guillemenot: 2.6 goals/game. Without: 1.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Zürich 4-1-4-1 · Servette 4-2-3-1
Zürich
- 13 H. Lindner
- 3 S. Hodža
- 2 L. Kamberi
- 27 I. Sauter
- 43 N. Volken
- 21 L. Schödler
- 7 B. Krasniqi
- 8 L. Comenencia
- 23 V. Berisha
- 11 U. Emmanuel
- 19 P. Keny
Servette
- 1 E. Gertmonas
- 23 Q. Maceiras
- 4 S. Rouiller
- 15 M. Burch
- 18 B. Mazikou
- 6 P. Naressi Machado
- 8 T. Cognat
- 22 M. Lambourde
- 9 M. Stevanović
- 14 L. Njoh
- 97 F. Aye
Substitutes
- 17 K. Spadanuda
- 9 J. Perea Mendoza
- 38 M. Reichmuth
- 18 M. Bangoura
- 49 D. Ramić
- 44 S. Walker
- 14 N. Di Giusto
- 42 A. Hack
- 60 T. Pinthus-Duah
- 77 T. Ouattara
- 28 D. Douline
- 11 L. Fomba
- 34 T. Allix
- 90 S. Mráz
- 35 A. Vincent
- 17 H. Mendes
- 78 L. Besson
- 41 T.Nunez
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