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Vaduz – St. Gallen2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Vaduz
1.00
Total xG
1.82
St. Gallen
0.82
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vaduz | St. Gallen |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −2.00 | |
| Attack strength (1.68x league average) | +1.67 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.72 | +0.72 |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.51 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Hugo Vandermersch on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Tom Gaal not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Mihailo Stevanovic on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Mathematical analysis estimates a 73% probability for a home win or draw (1X)
- St. Gallen must play without injured starting goalkeeper L. Ati-Zigi
- Vaduz recently dominated possession with an average of 58% and 4.8 shots on target
Risks
- Both teams face a very short recovery window with only 3 days since their last match
- St. Gallen has a long list of absences with 9 players ruled out or doubtful
- Limited data availability regarding the recent individual player form of Vaduz
All probabilities
Result
Vaduz37%
Draw36%
St. Gallen27%
Double chance
Vaduz or draw73%
St. Gallen or draw63%
No draw64%
Goals
Over 1.556%
Under 1.544%
Over 2.528%
Under 2.572%
Over 3.511%
Under 3.589%
Both teams score
Yes37%
No63%
Most likely scores
0:0
18%
1:1
15%
1:0
14%
0:1
12%
2:0
8%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Gallen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- St. Gallen: 94% of xG value comes in the second half (last 6 games with xG data)
- St. Gallen: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- St. Gallen: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- St. Gallen: 50% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 12)
Lineups
Vaduz 4-3-1-2 · St. Gallen 3-5-2
Vaduz
- 1 B. Büchel
- 4 N. Hasler
- 6 D. Simani
- 5 L. Berisha
- 29 M. Sawadogo
- 17 J. Stark
- 20 L. Mack
- 10 J. Cabrera
- 11 L. Dalipi
- 39 D. Sorgić
- 9 M. Michael Monsberger
St. Gallen
- 25 L. Watkowiak
- 74 J. Ruiz
- 4 J. Stanic
- 36 C. Okoroji
- 7 C. Witzig
- 16 L. Görtler
- 10 L. Daschner
- 11 C. Boukhalfa
- 20 L. Frokaj
- 9 A. Hunziker
- 14 A. Balde
Substitutes
- 27 N. Lang
- 7 D. Schwizer
- 14 M. Beeli
- 22 M. Eberhard
- 23 M. Hammerich
- 28 M. Cocic
- 19 D. Djokic
- 30 M. Walker
- 38 N. Föllmi
- 31 D. Besio
- 28 H. Vandermersch
- 35 B. Dumrath
- 23 B. Fazliji
- 64 M. Stevanovic
- 63 C. Konietzke
- 47 E. Owusu
- 68 M. Heydari
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