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Sion – Luzern3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Sion
2.09
Total xG
3.27
Luzern
1.17
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sion | Luzern |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.59x league average) | +1.03 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.72 | +0.72 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Josias Lukembila on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Franck Surdez on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Andrej Vasovic not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Adrian Bajrami not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Bung Meng Freimann not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 17% of goal output missing (only 88% available) |
Key factors
- The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 57% and expects 2.09 goals for Sion
- Sion averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches, while Luzern averaged 6.0
- Sion shows a positive form trend, currently scoring more frequently (2.4) than their season average (1.89)
Risks
- Sion has a clear rest disadvantage with only 3 days since their last match compared to Luzern's 8 days
- Sion recently conceded an average of 2.0 goals, which is higher than their season average of 1.22
- Luzern will be without Andrej Vasovic, Adrian Bajrami, and Bung Meng Freimann, leaving them with only 88% of their usual starting strength
All probabilities
Result
Sion57%
Draw23%
Luzern20%
Double chance
Sion or draw80%
Luzern or draw43%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Luzern: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- Luzern with Kevin Spadanuda: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Luzern: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Luzern: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
- Luzern: 80% of all goals in the second half (12 of 15, last 8 games)
Lineups
Sion 4-4-2 · Luzern 4-3-1-2
Sion
- 1 A. Racioppi
- 14 N. Lavanchy
- 5 N. Sow
- 17 J. Kronig
- 20 N. Hefti
- 7 I. Chouaref
- 88 A. Kabacalman
- 8 B. Costa Rodrigues de Oliveira
- 77 D. Rrudhani
- 33 R. Nivokazi
- 13 W. Boteli
Luzern
- 1 S. Simoni
- 20 P. Dorn
- 5 S. Knežević
- 21 L. Lüthi
- 22 R. Fernandes
- 24 T. Owusu
- 6 L. Bertone
- 16 O. Kabwit tshikomb
- 10 L. Silva Ferreira
- 11 M. Di Giusto
- 71 S. Meyer
Substitutes
- 9 J. Lukembila
- 6 M. Cipriano
- 22 A. Llukes
- 29 T. Berdayes
- 12 F. Ruberto
- 21 L. Chipperfield
- 37 F. Sylla
- 19 F. Surdez
- 38 R. Kessler
- 80 Mio Zimmermann
- 27 V. Villiger
- 14 A. Cigaņiks
- 3 J. Löfgren
- 28 R. Dantas Fernandes
- 7 A. Oehlers
- 13 B. Freimann
- 63 R. Radtke
- 15 N. Toggenburg
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