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Super League

Sion - Luzern

08/02/2026, 02:30 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Sion
2.1
Total xG
3.3
Luzern
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

3:1

7%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
SIOLUZ

Sion

Attack strength (1.59x league average)
+1.03
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.15
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.11
Josias Lukembila on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
Franck Surdez on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)

Luzern

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.05
Andrej Vasovic not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
Adrian Bajrami not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Bung Meng Freimann not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 88% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Luzern: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Luzern with Kevin Spadanuda: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Luzern: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Luzern: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Luzern: 80% of all goals in the second half (12 of 15, last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

23%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 57% and expects 2.09 goals for Sion
  • Sion averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches, while Luzern averaged 6.0
  • Sion shows a positive form trend, currently scoring more frequently (2.4) than their season average (1.89)
Risk Factors
  • Sion has a clear rest disadvantage with only 3 days since their last match compared to Luzern's 8 days
  • Sion recently conceded an average of 2.0 goals, which is higher than their season average of 1.22
  • Luzern will be without Andrej Vasovic, Adrian Bajrami, and Bung Meng Freimann, leaving them with only 88% of their usual starting strength
Overview

Sion (11th place, 0 points) host Luzern (12th place, 0 points) at the Stade de Tourbillon

Super League match on August 2, 2026, 4:30 PM

Both teams started the season with a defeat and seek their first points

Form

Sion's form is DDDLW with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss recently

Luzern's form is WDWWL with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Sion won their last match 4-0 against BATE while Luzern lost 1-3 to Thun

Statistics

Last season Sion scored avg 1.66 goals and conceded avg 1.05 goals

Luzern scored avg 2.00 goals per game and conceded avg 1.74 goals

Sion kept 15 clean sheets while Luzern kept only 7 in 38 matches

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, both Sion and Luzern have 1 win, with 3 draws

The goal difference is 9-8 in favor of Sion

The last meeting on February 7, 2026, ended in a 0-0 draw

Key Players

Rilind Nivokazi scored 13 goals and provided 5 assists in 37 matches

Ilyas Chouaref contributed 9 goals and 8 assists in 38 season appearances

Matteo Di Giusto stood out for the visitors with 12 goals and 12 assists in 38 matches

Oscar Kabwit scored 11 goals in only 17 season games

Goalkeepers

Anthony Racioppi starts in goal for Sion, holding a season rating of 7.10

Simon Simoni takes the goalkeeper position for the away side Luzern

Sion recorded 15 clean sheets last season compared to Luzern's 7

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Stade de Tourbillon

Sion conceded only 14 goals in 17 home matches last season

The historical venue statistics show an average of 3.0 goals per game

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